Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:41:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x12f3…171d crypto 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$136 (-20%) realized −$136 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day44.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$136
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-34.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -27.0% -34.0% 36% 18% -30.5%
≤30d 11 -27.0% -34.0% 36% 18% -30.5%
≤90d 11 -27.0% -34.0% 36% 18% -30.5%
all 11 -27.0% -34.0% 36% 18% -30.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.0% 18% -30.5%
10% ← realistic here -40.3% 18% -37.2%
15% -46.1% 18% -43.2%
20% -51.4% 18% -48.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$35 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$136
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day44.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 24 $29 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 24 $119 −$12 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $12 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$7 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $93 +$85 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $26 +$22 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 24 $103 −$61 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 24 $103 −$8 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $15 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $83 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $100 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $51 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $13 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $12 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $178 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records