Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:27:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x12f5…4169 politics 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 302d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$9 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate35%16W / 30L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% −$1
other 24% +$5
politics 11% +$1
sports 4% $0
culture 4% +$1
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 11 +0.3% -9.2% 45% 18% -9.5%
≤90d 12 +0.3% -9.3% 42% 17% -9.5%
all 46 -0.5% -9.9% 35% 7% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 7% -9.1%
10% -18.6% 0% -17.8%
15% -26.4% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

302d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses16 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage302d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 91¢ $91 $90 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $43 −$1 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $96 −$3 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $95 +$1 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $3 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $161 −$25 -16%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $92 +$12 +13%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 23 $191 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $149 +$17 +12%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 20 $89 +$1 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 19 $91 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 18 $89 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 19 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Dec 16 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 23 $1 −$1 -63%
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA? Oct 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 22 $21 +$4 +18%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 14 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 09 $21 $0 +0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 08 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 04 $22 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $22 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 01 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $2 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 30 $25 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $28 +$1 +5%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 25 $4 $0 -5%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 21 $15 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 21 $57 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 20 $14 +$1 +7%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Aug 20 $28 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 20 $39 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 20 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $8 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $83 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 29¢ $42 22d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 30¢ $43 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 57¢ $92 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $47 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 59¢ $49 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $45 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $26 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $24 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $95 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $7 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $9 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $21 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $43 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 59¢ $33 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 59¢ $3 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 59¢ $44 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 59¢ $20 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $26 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $92 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $8 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $37 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $20 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $39 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.09 · official $90.09 (match) · 244 history records