Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:52:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x12f8…dc44 crypto 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$39 (-8%) realized −$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate62%13W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day59.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$11
sports 4% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -8.8% -17.4% 62% 43% -15.8%
≤30d 21 -8.8% -17.4% 62% 43% -15.8%
≤90d 21 -8.8% -17.4% 62% 43% -15.8%
all 21 -8.8% -17.4% 62% 43% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.4% 43% -15.8%
10% ← realistic here -25.3% 24% -23.8%
15% -32.6% 5% -31.2%
20% -39.2% 5% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$11 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses13 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage1d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day59.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 22 $31 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 22 $41 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 22 $20 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $26 $0 -1%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $41 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $20 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$14 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$16 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 21 $51 −$21 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $72 −$20 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $12 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $16 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $21 10h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $20 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $13 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $11 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $17 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $20 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 75 history records