Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:14:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
12 0x12fb…35d7 world 71 markets active 20h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate34%24W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$0
14 days−$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$1
world 38% +$2
politics 7% −$9
finance 2% −$1
sports 1% −$2
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +1.7% -7.9% 36% 9% -9.5%
≤30d 32 +0.5% -9.1% 34% 3% -9.6%
≤90d 49 -1.9% -11.2% 29% 2% -9.6%
all 70 -5.2% -14.2% 34% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 3% -9.8%
10% -22.4% 0% -18.5%
15% -29.9% 0% -26.3%
20% -36.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses24 / 46
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 71
History coverage526d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $11 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $45 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $86 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $30 $0 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $46 −$1 -1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $41 +$1 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $2 $0 +19%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $47 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $45 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $41 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $13 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $36 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $18 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $48 −$2 -4%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $4 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $24 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 05 $102 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $47 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $1 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $46 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $46 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $45 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $30 +$3 +9%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $5 $0 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $53 −$1 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $105 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $91 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $86 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $41 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $46 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $45 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $26 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $2 $0 -8%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $41 $0 +1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $26 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $26 −$1 -2%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $270 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $568 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $569 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $202 $0 -0%
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $11 19h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $45 22h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $45 24h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $41 28h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $8 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $33 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $45 39h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $45 39h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $21 47h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $20 47h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $12 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $29 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $26 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $26 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $8 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $37 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $46 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $35 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $7 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $41 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $13 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $13 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $44 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $45 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $45 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.47 · official $11.47 (match) · 262 history records