Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:18:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

13
0x1301…2f0a
sports · 854 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$94 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$69 · open −$24
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$87
Realized−$69
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses458 / 362
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions67
Markets (closed)820 / 854
History coverage9d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day278.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 67 History 820 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$77
14 days−$69
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 51¢ 56¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+10%)
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Ashlyn Krueger Ashlyn Krueger 73¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+36%)
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Emma Raducanu 53¢ 100¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+89%)
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris Billy Harris 72¢ 70¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Marcos Giron 58¢ 52¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Robin Montgomery 60¢ 72¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+19%)
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Ben Shelton 66¢ 48¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-27%)
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Jacob Fearnley 70¢ 68¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 49¢ 44¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Will Phoenix Suns win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+153%)
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Alexander Bublik 64¢ 78¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+23%)
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Kamil Majchrzak 47¢ 34¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-29%)
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch Darwin Blanch 42¢ 84¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+101%)
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans Daniel Galan 42¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Cattolica: Raul Brancaccio vs Roberto Carballes Baena Roberto Carballes Baena 65¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+32%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 76¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+30%)
Will the Democrats win the Alabama governor race in 2026? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will Wells Fargo or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+24%)
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes 29¢ 35¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Will the Democrats win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026? No 7¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? Yes 15¢ 17¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? No 88¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-25 House seat? No 37¢ 40¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Dexter Lawrence play for the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL regular season? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $8 −$1 -9%
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Federico Cina Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $2 +$1 +32%
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal Jun 12 $5 −$2 -43%
Ilkley: Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana Jun 12 $3 +$2 +73%
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette Jun 12 $4 +$3 +77%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $9 +$1 +12%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $9 +$4 +39%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $4 −$3 -72%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Modena: Dominika Salkova vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 12 $4 +$4 +88%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 12 $9 $0 +1%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Maxim Mrva Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $9 +$1 +9%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $8 −$2 -30%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 12 $2 +$2 +88%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $9 +$7 +78%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -52%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +39%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 +$3 +291%
Spread: Czechia (-2.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $2 −$1 -30%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $9 −$5 -50%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $9 +$1 +10%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 12 $5 +$3 +67%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -29%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $9 $0 +1%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 11 $6 −$4 -62%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +29%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $3 +$1 +19%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $9 −$1 -8%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Julia Grabher Jun 11 $2 −$1 -36%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $2 +$1 +45%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $6 $0 -0%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Tucuman: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Jun 11 $1 $0 +11%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $9 −$1 -14%
Tucuman: Santiago Rodriguez Taverna vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 11 $3 $0 +16%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) Jun 11 $1 $0 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 88% −$76
other 10% +$23
politics 1% −$13
weather 0% −$13
crypto 0% −$10
world 0% $0
tech 0% −$2
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris BUY Billy Harris 69¢ $1 2m
Cattolica: Raul Brancaccio vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 65¢ $1 9m
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Kamil Majchrzak 62¢ $1 9m
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Kamil Majchrzak 62¢ $1 11m
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery BUY Robin Montgomery 80¢ $1 11m
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans BUY Daniel Galan 36¢ $1 13m
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery BUY Robin Montgomery 65¢ $1 16m
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch BUY Darwin Blanch 42¢ $1 34m
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Kamil Majchrzak 32¢ $1 35m
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery BUY Daria Snigur 61¢ $1 42m
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Ashlyn Krueger BUY Ashlyn Krueger 71¢ $1 42m
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Ashlyn Krueger BUY Ashlyn Krueger 70¢ $1 42m
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Ashlyn Krueger BUY Ashlyn Krueger 70¢ $1 42m
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Ashlyn Krueger BUY Ashlyn Krueger 68¢ $1 48m
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Amanda Anisimova 45¢ $1 53m
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 36¢ $1 1h
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 62¢ $1 1h
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 66¢ $1 1h
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal BUY Arthur Gea 41¢ $1 1h
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal BUY Arthur Gea 45¢ $1 1h
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans BUY Daniel Galan 49¢ $1 1h
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal BUY Arthur Gea 38¢ $1 1h
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Ashlyn Krueger BUY Alicia Dudeney 12¢ $1 1h
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris BUY Billy Harris 70¢ $1 1h
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette BUY Zeynep Sonmez 47¢ $1 1h
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette BUY Magda Linette 50¢ $1 1h
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal BUY Mark Lajal 57¢ $1 1h
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Ashlyn Krueger BUY Ashlyn Krueger 91¢ $1 2h
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal BUY Mark Lajal 88¢ $1 2h
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Federico Cina BUY Zdenek Kolar 62¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 646 -3.2% -12.4% 56% 43% -11.8%
≤30d 820 +0.8% -8.8% 56% 43% -11.6%
≤90d 820 +0.8% -8.8% 56% 43% -11.6%
all 820 +0.8% -8.8% 56% 43% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover278.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 43% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 32% -20.0%
15% -25.5% 26% -27.7%
20% -32.8% 19% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.45 · official $87.48 (match) · 3500 history records