Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:57:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1304…e358 crypto 848 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 119d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$242 (-4%) realized −$242 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate78%664W / 184L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day22.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$6
14 days−$7
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$11
sports 46% −$92
other 4% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 113 -1.8% -11.2% 92% 7% -10.5%
≤30d 143 -3.9% -13.1% 87% 12% -11.1%
≤90d 653 -3.1% -12.3% 79% 25% -9.7%
all 848 -3.4% -12.6% 78% 23% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 23% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 10% -19.6%
15% -28.6% 5% -27.4%
20% -35.6% 3% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$242
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses664 / 184
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)848 / 848
History coverage120d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day22.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 848 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records