Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:19:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1304…f273 sports 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$203 (-15%) realized −$203 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%21W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$26
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$227
other 3% +$24
crypto 2% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -4.4% -13.5% 0% 0% -13.5%
≤30d 14 -8.5% -17.3% 36% 36% -0.8%
≤90d 56 -31.1% -37.7% 29% 27% -32.9%
all 64 -20.4% -28.0% 33% 31% -24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.0% 31% -24.4%
10% -34.8% 30% -31.6%
15% -41.1% 28% -38.2%
20% -46.9% 27% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$15 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$203
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses21 / 43
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage146d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Virtus.pro 51¢ 50¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 21 $44 −$2 -4%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $21 −$21 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $25 −$4 -14%
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League S Jun 01 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Project 91 vs Entropy (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 01 $32 −$6 -19%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $48 +$62 +129%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 30 $27 −$27 -98%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $23 +$27 +116%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Play May 29 $15 +$18 +118%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $30 +$25 +84%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Lilmix (BO3) - European Pro League Ser May 29 $19 −$19 -99%
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs Imperial (BO5) - ESL Challenger League Sout May 29 $29 +$21 +71%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - BC Game Masters May 25 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship May 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Lavked (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Seri May 05 $29 +$23 +78%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs GenOne (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In May 05 $19 +$10 +52%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 30 $14 −$14 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Grou Apr 30 $16 −$1 -8%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Phantom (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Apr 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 30 $28 −$28 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B Apr 30 $20 +$58 +291%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B Apr 29 $8 −$8 -98%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 29 $27 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Walczaki (BO3) - Conquest of Prague Online Apr 29 $17 +$3 +20%
Pacers vs. Hawks Apr 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Apr 29 $33 −$33 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B Apr 29 $42 −$42 -100%
Counter-Strike: ECSTATIC vs Johnny Speeds (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Apr 29 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Tallahassee: Oliver Crawford vs Jack Kennedy Apr 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Delray Beach Open: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Mattia Bellucci Apr 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Tricked (BO3) - IEM Atlanta: G Apr 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Midland: Hanyu Guo vs Louisa Chirico Apr 29 $8 −$3 -38%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoff Apr 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Apr 29 $46 −$46 -100%
Miami Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Thea Frodin Apr 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Rio Open: Dino Prizmic vs Francesco Passaro Apr 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Apr 29 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs GenOne (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group S Apr 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Poland win on 2026-03-31? Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 29 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Apr 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Apr 29 $2 −$2 -95%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Apr 29 $13 −$13 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2: Apr 29 $17 +$36 +206%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 28 $10 −$6 -54%
Madrid Open: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Apr 28 $17 +$5 +30%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs AaB Esport (BO3) - Parken Challenger Cham Apr 01 $5 +$15 +291%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY Virtus.pro 51¢ $42 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof SELL 100 Thieves 55¢ $42 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY 100 Thieves 56¢ $44 1h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY GamerLegion 55¢ $21 13d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL 9z 10¢ $22 13d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY 9z 11¢ $25 14d
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY Donstu Esports 21¢ $26 19d
Counter-Strike: Project 91 vs Entropy (BO3) - European Pro League Seri SELL Project 91 44¢ $26 19d
Counter-Strike: Project 91 vs Entropy (BO3) - European Pro League Seri BUY Project 91 53¢ $32 19d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $48 21d
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs BUY magic 48¢ $27 21d
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs SELL magic 99¢ $51 22d
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs BUY magic 45¢ $23 22d
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Play SELL Sharks 99¢ $33 22d
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Play BUY Sharks 45¢ $15 22d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs SELL FaZe 99¢ $56 22d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs BUY FaZe 53¢ $30 22d
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Lilmix (BO3) - European Pro League Ser BUY Lilmix 56¢ $19 22d
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs Imperial (BO5) - ESL Challenger League Sout BUY ShindeN 58¢ $29 23d
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - BC Game Masters BUY HEROIC Academy 41¢ $6 26d
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship BUY SPARTA 38¢ $10 26d
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Lavked (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Seri SELL Walczaki 99¢ $52 46d
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Lavked (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Seri BUY Walczaki 55¢ $29 46d
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs GenOne (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In SELL Phantom 100¢ $29 46d
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs GenOne (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In BUY Phantom 65¢ $19 46d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A SELL G2 0¢ $0 51d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A BUY G2 31¢ $14 51d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Grou SELL GamerLegion 24¢ $15 51d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Grou BUY GamerLegion 25¢ $16 51d
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Phantom (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe BUY Phantom 31¢ $10 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.72 · official $41.72 (match) · 121 history records