Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:11:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
13 0x1305…46d2 sports 29 markets active 9h ago coverage 189d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$13,433 (+36%) realized +$13,433 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR79%break-even
Win rate79%23W / 6L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$1,289per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$362est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$10,909
14 days+$12,856
30 days+$12,856
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$12,704
other 5% +$509
politics 1% +$183
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +79%
net ROI/market (all)+8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +8.2% -2.1% 73% 73% +21.4%
≤30d 21 +26.0% +14.0% 81% 81% +24.0%
≤90d 27 +19.4% +8.0% 78% 78% +23.0%
all 29 +19.8% +8.4% 79% 79% +22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.4% 79% +22.9%
10% -2.0% 76% +11.1%
15% -11.5% 59% +0.4%
20% -20.2% 31% -9.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,110) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +32% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$724 vs −$543 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×5.11 per $1 lost it wins $5.11
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$13,433
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses23 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$362
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage189d
Avg bet$1,289
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,340 +$660 +49%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $768 −$768 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $1,005 −$1,005 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,520 +$478 +31%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1,110 +$280 +25%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $549 +$350 +64%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $502 −$502 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $535 −$535 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $2,070 +$927 +45%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $9,057 +$4,056 +45%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $6,166 +$2,893 +47%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $3,845 +$2,252 +59%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $1,454 +$694 +48%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,015 +$717 +71%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $1,031 +$414 +40%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $37 +$22 +60%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $648 +$431 +66%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $440 +$559 +127%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $663 +$637 +96%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $268 +$132 +49%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $669 +$166 +25%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $831 +$472 +57%
Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 14 $277 +$78 +28%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 14 $550 +$183 +33%
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 11 $300 −$300 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $350 +$206 +59%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner Mar 19 $152 −$152 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-12-09? Dec 09 $135 +$15 +11%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-12-08? Dec 08 $99 +$39 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,012 9h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $99 9h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $99 9h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 9h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $128 9h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,998 9h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $457 12h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $42 12h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $12 12h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $11 12h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $45 12h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $950 12h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $384 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $30 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $28 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $3 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $322 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $10 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $62 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $20 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $137 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $8 14h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 80¢ $8 36h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 80¢ $39 36h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 80¢ $24 36h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 80¢ $256 36h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 80¢ $261 36h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 80¢ $12 36h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 52¢ $9 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 224 history records