Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:19:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
13 0x1306…1ec6 world 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 478d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate65%28W / 15L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% +$5
other 18% $0
politics 4% $0
crypto 4% $0
tech 4% $0
sports 2% $0
weather 2% +$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -5.8% -14.8% 25% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 21 +3.6% -6.2% 48% 5% -9.0%
≤90d 21 +3.6% -6.2% 48% 5% -9.0%
all 43 +0.2% -9.4% 65% 5% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 5% -8.9%
10% -18.1% 2% -17.7%
15% -26.0% 2% -25.6%
20% -33.2% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.84 per $1 lost it wins $2.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

478d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses28 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage478d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 43¢ 48¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $48 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $44 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $17 $0 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $2 −$1 -39%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $3 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $57 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $42 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $48 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $47 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $43 −$1 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 01 $48 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 31 $4 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $47 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $43 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $44 +$2 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $84 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $37 +$2 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $58 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $15 $0 +2%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 +4%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jun 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 08 $8 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 03 $2 $0 +4%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 03 $0 $0 -100%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will Wolverhampton be relegated? Apr 03 $3 $0 -6%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 03 $16 $0 +1%
Will the next UK election be called by June 30? Apr 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy be a member of the Trump administration? Apr 02 $1 $0 +16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $19 $0 +1%
Will Elon go on Daily Show before April? Mar 30 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 again by March 31? Mar 29 $17 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 28 $18 $0 +0%
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 27 $19 $0 +0%
Will another racer win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $19 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $19 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on February Mar 21 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Kanye tweet 200-399 times February 20-28? Feb 28 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $47 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $48 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $4 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $39 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $44 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $17 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $17 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $15 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $9 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $22 33h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 36h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $13 37h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 11¢ $1 43h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 18¢ $2 44h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $48 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $48 3d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.76 · official $0.00 (match) · 148 history records