Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:23:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1306…c689 other 219 markets active 2h ago coverage 588d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$69 (+1%) realized +$129 · open −$60
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%109W / 108L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$192
7 days+$314
14 days+$314
30 days+$226
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$196
sports 46% +$129
world 0% +$39
crypto 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +63.4% +47.9% 77% 77% +40.7%
≤30d 15 +41.6% +28.1% 67% 67% +21.8%
≤90d 67 -6.2% -15.1% 45% 45% -16.4%
all 217 -1.5% -10.9% 50% 50% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 50% -9.2%
10% -19.4% 49% -17.9%
15% -27.2% 47% -25.8%
20% -34.3% 42% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$45 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

588d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$129
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses109 / 108
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions2
Markets (closed)217 / 219
History coverage588d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 217 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 14¢ $50 $14 −$36 (-72%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Over 30¢ $30 $6 −$24 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $41 +$39 +97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$24 +93%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $76 +$74 +97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $46 −$45 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 +$39 +129%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $31 +$63 +206%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$47 +93%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $41 +$41 +101%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $35 +$28 +79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $41 +$48 +119%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $50 +$54 +109%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 May 30 $39 −$38 -98%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5 May 20 $51 −$49 -98%
Vinicius Junior: Anytime Goalscorer May 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $50 −$49 -98%
SS Lazio vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 4.5 May 08 $42 −$41 -98%
Levante UD vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 4.5 May 08 $21 +$21 +101%
Spread: Levante UD (-1.5) May 08 $51 −$50 -98%
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 3.5 May 08 $35 +$37 +105%
Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5) May 08 $36 −$35 -98%
Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score May 07 $53 −$52 -98%
SC Freiburg vs. SC Braga: O/U 2.5 May 07 $39 +$45 +114%
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorer May 07 $31 +$48 +158%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $39 −$38 -98%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer May 06 $31 −$30 -98%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 05 $55 −$54 -98%
Julian Alvarez: Anytime Goalscorer May 05 $55 −$54 -98%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $56 −$55 -98%
Ademola Lookman: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 29 $58 −$57 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5 Apr 29 $50 +$114 +226%
Arsenal FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 25 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $50 −$49 -98%
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 18 $24 −$23 -97%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 18 $50 −$49 -98%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 18 $50 −$49 -99%
AS Roma vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5 Apr 18 $50 −$49 -99%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5 Apr 18 $50 +$30 +60%
Aston Villa FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5 Apr 17 $50 +$94 +188%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. FC Porto: Both Teams to Score Apr 16 $50 −$49 -98%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 4.5 Apr 16 $31 −$30 -98%
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 Apr 16 $59 +$73 +124%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $50 −$49 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $50 +$83 +165%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 4.5 Apr 14 $50 −$49 -98%
Como 1907 vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 3.5 Apr 14 $60 +$136 +226%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Oviedo: Both Teams to Score Apr 12 $78 −$77 -99%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 12 $50 −$49 -98%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 12 $60 +$42 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $31 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $51 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $41 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $51 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 23h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $76 25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $46 29h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $31 46h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $31 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $51 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $82 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $41 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $41 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $35 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $50 5d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $39 19d
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 14¢ $51 29d
Vinicius Junior: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 35¢ $51 39d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 18¢ $50 40d
SS Lazio vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $42 40d
Levante UD vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $42 40d
Levante UD vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 49¢ $21 40d
Spread: Levante UD (-1.5) BUY Levante UD 20¢ $51 40d
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $72 40d
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $35 41d
Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5) BUY BV Borussia 09 Dortmund 35¢ $36 41d
Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 21¢ $13 41d
SC Freiburg vs. SC Braga: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $84 41d
SC Freiburg vs. SC Braga: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $39 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.72 · official $19.72 (match) · 407 history records