Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:16:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
13 0x130a…5c12 sports 230 markets active 3h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$577 (+14%) realized +$579 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate49%112W / 117L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days+$80
14 days+$69
30 days+$267
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$346
other 21% +$179
world 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +2.9% -6.9% 57% 48% +5.1%
≤30d 89 +9.5% -0.9% 57% 51% +4.8%
≤90d 229 +3.7% -6.2% 49% 43% +2.2%
all 229 +3.7% -6.2% 49% 43% +2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 43% +2.2%
10% -15.2% 37% -7.5%
15% -23.4% 31% -16.5%
20% -30.9% 26% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$8 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$579
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses112 / 117
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions1
Markets (closed)229 / 230
History coverage65d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 229 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 52¢ $9 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $34 +$1 +3%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $31 +$3 +10%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 +$5 +18%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $49 +$35 +70%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $16 −$11 -68%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 +$5 +21%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $33 +$22 +67%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $33 −$1 -2%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $13 −$9 -71%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $5 −$3 -66%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $12 −$7 -60%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $26 −$21 -80%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $26 +$24 +90%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 14 $25 +$32 +129%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $43 −$18 -42%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $35 +$8 +23%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $27 +$14 +50%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 +$3 +42%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $7 +$10 +140%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $15 −$2 -15%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 10 $11 +$4 +32%
Dallas Wings vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 10 $11 $0 +3%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 10 $7 +$4 +52%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 09 $27 −$27 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $27 $0 +2%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 07 $21 +$5 +26%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-4.5) Jun 07 $10 +$11 +105%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-12.5) Jun 06 $5 +$5 +101%
Real Madrid vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 06 $27 −$18 -65%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 06 $12 +$3 +22%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $30 +$12 +40%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions Jun 05 $52 +$18 +35%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-3.5) Jun 05 $38 −$16 -42%
Telekom Baskets Bonn vs. FC Bayern Munchen Jun 05 $32 +$6 +19%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $68 +$30 +44%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 04 $33 −$25 -76%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $31 +$2 +6%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) Jun 03 $34 +$16 +48%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 02 $32 +$3 +8%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 02 $34 +$11 +33%
Spread: Slovakia (-1.5) Jun 01 $5 −$2 -43%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $9 +$5 +56%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) Jun 01 $8 +$6 +76%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks May 31 $30 +$15 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 79¢ $18 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 76¢ $17 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $34 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $31 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 84¢ $26 22h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $35 38h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 20¢ $5 39h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 86¢ $15 39h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 61¢ $16 39h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $25 42h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $33 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $33 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $33 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $13 2d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings SELL Las Vegas Aces 5¢ $2 2d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 14¢ $5 2d
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) SELL IR Iran 11¢ $5 2d
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 26¢ $12 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $10 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $10 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 51¢ $5 3d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 16¢ $5 3d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 76¢ $26 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 52¢ $26 4d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) BUY Knicks 43¢ $25 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 42¢ $25 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 71¢ $43 4d
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Indiana Fever 81¢ $35 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.77 · official $7.46 (match) · 612 history records