Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:07:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
13 0x130b…4d8a weather 132 markets active 2h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+0%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%124W / 6L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$231now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$4
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% +$11
sports 1% $0
politics 0% $0
other 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 64 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 114 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 130 +0.2% -9.4% 95% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×4.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×85.65 per $1 lost it wins $85.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$231
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses124 / 6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)130 / 132
History coverage125d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $172 $172 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C or below on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $58 $58 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $175 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 81°F or below on June 25? Jun 26 $55 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 25? Jun 25 $178 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 25? Jun 25 $51 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 24? Jun 24 $229 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 23? Jun 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 23? Jun 23 $216 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 21? Jun 21 $226 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on June 19? Jun 20 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 17? Jun 20 $208 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? Jun 18 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $226 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 61°F or below on June 1 Jun 15 $226 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 13? Jun 14 $86 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $166 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $218 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $226 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $224 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 9? Jun 09 $55 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $79 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $89 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 8? Jun 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 8? Jun 09 $223 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $225 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 6? Jun 06 $224 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $224 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 4? Jun 04 $151 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 4? Jun 04 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C or below on June 3? Jun 03 $108 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 3? Jun 03 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 2? Jun 03 $144 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 2? Jun 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 03 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on June 2? Jun 02 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 2? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 2? Jun 02 $155 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 2? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 1? Jun 02 $53 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 1? Jun 02 $105 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 1? Jun 01 $56 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $172 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 33°C or below on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $58 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C or below on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $175 25h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 34°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 81°F or below on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $55 27h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $178 42h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $51 42h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $229 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $216 3d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $12 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $199 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $226 6d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 83°F or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $23 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $23 8d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $140 9d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $66 9d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $226 9d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 61°F or below on June 1 BUY No 100¢ $226 12d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $86 12d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $166 13d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $50 13d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $7 13d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 13d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $218 14d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $7 14d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $226 15d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $224 16d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 100¢ $5 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $230.83 · official $230.83 (match) · 281 history records