Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:20:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
13 0x130c…0d78 sports 184 markets active 1h ago coverage 202d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$150 (+9%) realized +$131 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%90W / 92L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$24
14 days+$109
30 days+$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% +$89
other 38% +$69
politics 7% −$31
finance 5% +$3
world 4% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +24.9% +13.0% 60% 60% +20.0%
≤30d 52 +15.9% +4.9% 58% 58% +18.6%
≤90d 154 +1.4% -8.3% 48% 47% -4.9%
all 182 +2.9% -6.9% 49% 48% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 48% -2.7%
10% -15.8% 45% -12.1%
15% -23.9% 40% -20.6%
20% -31.4% 35% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

202d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$131
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses90 / 92
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)182 / 184
History coverage202d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Over 45¢ 100¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+122%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Tampa Bay Rays 58¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $4 +$6 +134%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$3 +110%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $3 +$3 +129%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $4 −$1 -35%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $4 +$3 +91%
England vs. Costa Rica: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $6 +$3 +62%
Armenia vs. Moldova: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $8 +$7 +86%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $3 +$4 +138%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $11 +$7 +62%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $13 +$12 +89%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $6 +$6 +97%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $10 +$7 +67%
Portugal vs. Chile: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $20 +$21 +101%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Angola win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Haiti vs. Peru: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $4 +$4 +123%
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Syria win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will India win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $5 +$3 +75%
Will Montenegro win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $2 +$5 +261%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $5 +$5 +118%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $5 +$3 +48%
Panama vs. Dominican Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $8 +$8 +105%
Poland vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Gibraltar win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Israel win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $5 +$6 +122%
Haiti vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $9 +$11 +119%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Wales vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $16 +$14 +91%
Croatia vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $9 −$9 -100%
Georgia vs. Romania: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $6 +$6 +95%
Will Notts County FC win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $11 +$9 +84%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Cruzeiro EC vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: Both Teams to Score May 25 $10 +$11 +114%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres May 24 $12 +$2 +20%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $6 +$7 +118%
Will SC Internacional win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $3 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 58¢ $2 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 82¢ $5 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $4 2d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 43¢ $3 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 42¢ $4 2d
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 50¢ $4 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $7 3d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Houston Astros 29¢ $2 3d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals SELL Texas Rangers 82¢ $7 3d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Houston Astros 43¢ $4 3d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 42¢ $4 3d
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3d
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $6 4d
England vs. Costa Rica: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $5 4d
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 71¢ $7 5d
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 5d
Armenia vs. Moldova: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $8 5d
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $11 5d
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $25 7d
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $13 7d
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $4 7d
Venezuela vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $6 8d
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $10 8d
Portugal vs. Chile: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 8d
Portugal vs. Chile: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 8d
Will Chile win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 8d
Haiti vs. Peru: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $8 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.84 · official $8.84 (match) · 478 history records