Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:57:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
13 0x1315…7c77 other 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$262 (+3%) realized +$224 · open +$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +21% what you keep after slip
Net edge+21%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate82%31W / 7L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$1,490now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days+$194
14 days+$244
30 days+$244
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$255
sports 36% +$22
crypto 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)+31.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +3.7% -6.2% 93% 7% -6.6%
≤30d 38 +45.0% +31.2% 82% 8% -6.2%
≤90d 38 +45.0% +31.2% 82% 8% -6.2%
all 38 +45.0% +31.2% 82% 8% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +31.2% 8% -6.2%
10% +18.6% 3% -15.2%
15% +7.2% 3% -23.4%
20% -3.3% 3% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +45% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +86% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×5.83 per $1 lost it wins $5.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$1,490
Realized+$224
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses31 / 7
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)38 / 45
History coverage11d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lamine Yamal score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 93¢ 100¢ $551 $592 +$41 (+7%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 89¢ 100¢ $250 $281 +$31 (+12%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 32¢ $249 $241 −$7 (-3%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 76¢ 80¢ $221 $232 +$11 (+5%)
Will Endrick score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 94¢ 60¢ $89 $57 −$32 (-36%)
Will Miguel Almirón score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 92¢ $56 $57 +$1 (+2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? No 39¢ 32¢ $37 $31 −$6 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $496 +$4 +1%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $288 +$12 +4%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $197 +$3 +2%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $496 +$4 +1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $95 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $16 +$2 +10%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $184 +$1 +1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $637 +$17 +3%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 20 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Netherlands be the highest-scoring team in Group F during the Gro Jun 20 $24 +$3 +13%
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $343 +$21 +6%
Will Matheus Cunha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $174 −$1 -0%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $20 $0 +1%
Will Granit Xhaka score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $453 +$36 +8%
Will Luis Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $133 +$2 +1%
Will Jude Bellingham score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $87 +$2 +2%
Will João Neves score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $113 +$9 +8%
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? Jun 17 $669 +$26 +4%
Will Lionel Messi score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $141 +$2 +2%
Will Erling Haaland score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $297 +$6 +2%
Will Erling Haaland score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $68 +$1 +2%
Will Kylian Mbappe score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $189 +$11 +6%
Will Bradley Barcola score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $83 +$3 +4%
Will Kylian Mbappe score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $390 +$10 +2%
Will Alexander Isak score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $143 +$6 +4%
Frenkie de Jong: 1+ assists Jun 15 $95 $0 -0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $38 +$2 +5%
Will Kai Havertz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $75 +$10 +14%
Spread: Haiti (-2.5) Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 +$94 +1900%
Will Folarin Balogun score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $55 +$1 +2%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $297 +$3 +1%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $45 −$23 -51%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Costa Rica (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 $0 -0%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mikel Oyarzabal score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 89¢ $252 1h
Will Lamine Yamal score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 99¢ $191 1h
Will Lamine Yamal score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 91¢ $183 1h
Will Lamine Yamal score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 90¢ $181 1h
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $79 6h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $99 12h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $99 12h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $100 12h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 89¢ $90 12h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $99 12h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $99 12h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $100 12h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $100 12h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $99 16h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 97¢ $98 16h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $98 16h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $149 16h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $32 16h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $216 16h
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $77 19h
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 19h
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $62 19h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $95 20h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 97¢ $293 20h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 97¢ $293 20h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 95¢ $21 20h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 97¢ $21 20h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 91¢ $9 20h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 91¢ $16 20h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 99¢ $177 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,489.92 · official $1,489.92 (match) · 140 history records