Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:13:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1315…f2e5 world 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$159 (-3%) realized −$147 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate69%44W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$92
7 days+$152
14 days−$112
30 days−$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$153
other 12% +$34
crypto 11% +$78
tech 9% +$21
politics 8% −$147
culture 6% +$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -4.0% -13.1% 67% 33% +9.7%
≤30d 49 -0.4% -9.9% 71% 31% -11.4%
≤90d 64 -0.7% -10.1% 69% 34% -10.8%
all 64 -0.7% -10.1% 69% 34% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 34% -10.8%
10% -18.7% 19% -19.4%
15% -26.6% 14% -27.2%
20% -33.8% 11% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$40 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$188
Realized−$147
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses44 / 20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)64 / 66
History coverage59d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 89¢ 91¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $86 −$14 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $26 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 20 $54 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$21 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 20 $104 +$94 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $126 +$11 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $100 +$8 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? Jun 16 $101 +$46 +46%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $40 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $50 +$3 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $44 +$3 +6%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 24m? Jun 08 $101 +$29 +28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $108 −$108 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $70 +$14 +21%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 10, 2026? Jun 06 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $70 +$7 +11%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 5? Jun 05 $50 +$4 +8%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 05 $103 −$100 -98%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 4, 2026? Jun 05 $100 +$3 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $100 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$37 +696%
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" this week? Jun 04 $100 +$9 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 02 $100 −$100 -100%
Will "Nemesis" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Jun 02 $50 +$5 +9%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $90 +$10 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $100 +$8 +8%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? Jun 01 $100 +$8 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $100 +$22 +22%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $125 +$2 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $70 +$13 +19%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $80 +$41 +52%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 31 $100 +$5 +5%
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? May 31 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 31 $101 +$18 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $66 +$7 +10%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 27 $100 +$15 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET May 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $100 +$25 +25%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $100 +$9 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $350 +$33 +9%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $175 +$5 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $198 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $136 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 97¢ $45 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 87¢ $40 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes $4 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? BUY No 95¢ $50 9d
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? BUY No 68¢ $101 10d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 9, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $109 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? BUY No 95¢ $44 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.12 · official $188.12 (match) · 138 history records