Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:59:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1316…a385 sports 239 markets active 1h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%20W / 219L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% −$4
politics 23% −$4
other 18% −$6
crypto 8% −$2
world 7% $0
economics 7% −$1
culture 6% −$1
tech 3% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -4.3% -13.4% 0% 0% -13.4%
≤30d 3 -1.5% -10.9% 0% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 8 -1.1% -10.5% 12% 0% -10.2%
all 239 -0.5% -10.0% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses20 / 219
Open positions0
Markets (closed)239 / 239
History coverage171d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 239 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 22, 2026? Jun 19 $37 −$2 -4%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 11 $32 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 29 $35 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $46 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $42 $0 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 22 $176 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 22 $36 −$1 -3%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 21 $132 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 21 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 21 $82 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Mar 20 $46 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 20 $45 $0 +1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 20 $81 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 19 $43 −$1 -1%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Mar 18 $46 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 18 $158 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 17 $35 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 17 $149 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Mar 16 $47 $0 +0%
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 16 $35 $0 -0%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 15 $46 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 15 $37 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 15 $136 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 15 $45 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 13 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 13 $103 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 12 $131 $0 -0%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 12 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 12 $41 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 11 $39 $0 +0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 11 $270 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $95 $0 -0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 10 $43 +$2 +5%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 09 $43 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 09 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 08 $42 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 07 $85 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 07 $95 −$1 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 07 $82 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 06 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 06 $61 $0 -0%
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 06 $45 $0 +0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 04 $100 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $145 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 03 $41 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 03 $146 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Mar 03 $43 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $36 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $37 9h
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $32 7d
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $32 8d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $35 20d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $35 21d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 95¢ $46 35d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $46 35d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $42 89d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $8 89d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $10 89d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $24 89d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 98¢ $45 89d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 98¢ $45 89d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? SELL No 94¢ $35 89d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? BUY No 97¢ $36 89d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $36 89d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $36 90d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $39 90d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $39 90d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? SELL No 98¢ $41 90d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $41 90d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 92¢ $46 90d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 92¢ $46 90d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? SELL No 97¢ $46 90d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? BUY No 96¢ $45 91d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $44 91d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $44 91d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $43 91d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $43 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 788 history records