Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:27:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x131a…3e1f sports 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$103 (-48%) realized −$103 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$84
other 41% −$89
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -3.7% -12.9% 50% 50% -11.6%
≤30d 8 -3.7% -12.9% 50% 50% -11.6%
≤90d 8 -3.7% -12.9% 50% 50% -11.6%
all 8 -3.7% -12.9% 50% 50% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 50% -11.6%
10% -21.2% 50% -20.0%
15% -28.8% 50% -27.8%
20% -35.8% 50% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$27 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$103
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $26 +$34 +128%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $89 −$89 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $16 +$15 +97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $60 +$52 +86%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $4 +$2 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $60 7m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $21 57m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 24¢ $5 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $31 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 15¢ $2 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $60 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $66 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $23 10h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $3 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $2 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $6 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $4 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $9 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 24 history records