Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:53:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
13 0x131a…73f9 world 167 markets active 0h ago coverage 280d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$3,445 (+3%) realized +$3,590 · open −$145
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate42%66W / 92L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$728per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$787now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$110
14 days+$2,352
30 days−$777
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% +$4,581
politics 10% −$381
crypto 7% +$155
other 2% −$450
finance 1% −$189
sports 1% +$972
economics 1% −$31
tech 0% −$236
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -26.7% -33.7% 0% 0% -56.8%
≤30d 22 -21.9% -29.4% 27% 27% -10.4%
≤90d 75 +27.3% +15.2% 39% 28% -3.8%
all 158 +12.4% +1.7% 42% 28% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.7% 28% -5.1%
10% -8.0% 19% -14.2%
15% -16.9% 16% -22.5%
20% -25.1% 16% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$530) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$292 vs −$160 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

280d coverage
Net worth$787
Realized+$3,590
Unrealized−$145
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses66 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions9
Markets (closed)158 / 167
History coverage280d
Avg bet$728
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5) Virtus.pro 28¢ 100¢ $100 $357 +$257 (+257%)
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Virtus.pro 10¢ 40¢ $80 $318 +$238 (+298%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes 79¢ 30¢ $200 $77 −$123 (-62%)
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ $250 $14 −$236 (-94%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Yes 14¢ $30 $12 −$18 (-60%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 62¢ $250 $5 −$245 (-98%)
Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes $20 $3 −$17 (-87%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador to win the second half? Jun 25 $19 −$4 -20%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Second half draw? Jun 25 $28 −$2 -8%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 25 $54 −$2 -5%
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m? Jun 25 $3 −$1 -27%
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39m? Jun 25 $4 $0 -10%
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m? Jun 25 $4 −$1 -18%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $153 +$330 +216%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1,098 +$945 +86%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 15 $380 +$262 +69%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $4,101 +$556 +14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $3,861 +$2,989 +77%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $3,000 −$2,620 -87%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 11 $1,000 −$597 -60%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $204 −$200 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $270 −$260 -96%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $100 −$100 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $1,101 −$633 -58%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 29 $1,733 −$1,020 -59%
Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $101 +$17 +17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 27 $500 −$135 -27%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 27 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $531 −$252 -48%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $500 −$174 -35%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 22 $100 +$19 +19%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 14 $150 $0 +0%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $10 +$15 +152%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 09 $150 +$366 +244%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $4,520 +$3,067 +68%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? May 07 $585 +$15 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? May 07 $518 −$128 -25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 07 $3,900 −$706 -18%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 07 $751 −$116 -15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 06 $1,000 −$354 -35%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 06 $50 −$21 -42%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 04 $2,201 −$897 -41%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 29 $51 +$242 +474%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April? Apr 28 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? Apr 28 $4,250 −$23 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? Apr 25 $2,000 +$217 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? Apr 25 $2,600 +$151 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 25 $1,000 −$43 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $10,592 +$1,037 +10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 24 $300 −$39 -13%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? Apr 24 $50 −$29 -58%
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? Apr 24 $50 −$15 -29%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 24 $1,892 +$156 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 23 $704 +$106 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 23? Apr 23 $10 −$9 -93%
Weed rescheduled by June 30? Apr 23 $600 −$437 -73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL Virtus.pro 50¢ $99 6m
Ecuador to win the second half? SELL Yes 16¢ $16 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Second half draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $25 1h
Germany to win the second half? SELL Yes 52¢ $51 1h
Game Handicap: VSN (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5) BUY Virtus.pro 28¢ $102 1h
Germany to win the second half? BUY Yes 53¢ $27 2h
Ecuador to win the second half? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 2h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Second half draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $14 2h
Germany to win the second half? BUY Yes 53¢ $27 2h
Ecuador to win the second half? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 2h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Second half draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $14 2h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 14h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39m? SELL Yes 31¢ $4 14h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 14h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 14h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 39m? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 15h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 15h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Virtus.pro 10¢ $103 16h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 16h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 23h
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Taylor Fritz 35¢ $102 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 79¢ $200 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 62¢ $250 6d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $483 9d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 31¢ $153 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $2,043 10d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL Yes 87¢ $642 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,098 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 49¢ $1,006 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 49¢ $49 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $787.11 · official $885.91 · 856 history records