Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:20:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x131a…143d crypto 883 markets active 1h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$598 (-3%) realized −$598 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%415W / 468L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$53
14 days−$32
30 days−$565
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$879
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -13.2% -21.4% 41% 41% -15.0%
≤30d 93 -10.0% -18.6% 42% 41% -32.0%
≤90d 337 -3.4% -12.6% 52% 50% -18.8%
all 883 -2.4% -11.7% 47% 46% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 46% -14.1%
10% -20.2% 45% -22.3%
15% -27.9% 42% -29.8%
20% -34.9% 39% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$17 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$598
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses415 / 468
Open positions0
Markets (closed)883 / 883
History coverage145d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 883 Trades
no open positions (205 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$18 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$35 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$16 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$18 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$18 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$14 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$13 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$20 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$9 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$17 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 24 $42 −$20 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$7 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$21 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 23 $46 −$7 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 23 $42 −$15 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$21 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$17 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$22 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$4 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$16 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$21 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$38 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 23 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 31 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 31 $21 +$17 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 31 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 31 $10 +$15 +146%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $21 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $34 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $33 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $41 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $21 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2098 history records