Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:44:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

13 0x1324…8c4e other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 13d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$130 (-41%) realized −$127 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip

Net edge-53%after slip

Net WR11%break-even

Win rate11%2W / 16L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$16per market

Trades / day1.7pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$55

7 days−$66

14 days−$173

30 days−$173

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +11%

net ROI/market (all)-52.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	-18.1%	-25.9%	18%	18%	-47.4%
≤30d	18	-47.9%	-52.9%	11%	11%	-67.0%
≤90d	18	-47.9%	-52.9%	11%	11%	-67.0%
all	18	-47.9%	-52.9%	11%	11%	-67.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-52.9%	11%	-67.0%
10%	-57.4%	11%	-70.1%
15%	-61.5%	6%	-73.0%
20%	-65.3%	6%	-75.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 74% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -64% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -48% · $-wt -64% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -96% → late +0% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$23 vs −$14 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.21 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage

Net worth$17

Realized−$127

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)11%

Wins / losses2 / 16

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)18 / 20

History coverage13d

Avg bet$16

Trades / day1.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	1¢	$20	$17	−$3 (-15%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$15	−$15	-98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$31	−$30	-98%
Will South Korea be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup	Jun 27	$12	−$10	-79%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5	Jun 25	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$20	−$20	-99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$39	+$12	+31%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Jun 23	$5	+$33	+650%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana?	Jun 23	$7	−$7	-97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana?	Jun 23	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$5	−$5	-97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$10	−$10	-97%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco?	Jun 19	$21	−$20	-98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$12	−$12	-98%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway?	Jun 16	$2	−$2	-98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 0 Norway?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$21	−$13	-64%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$41	−$40	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	24¢	$13	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	38¢	$31	1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	26¢	$2	1h
Will South Korea be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup	SELL Yes	5¢	$3	21h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	41¢	$10	3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	56¢	$20	3d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 AND Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 0.5 A	BUY	36¢	$20	3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	76¢	$39	3d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana?	BUY Yes	9¢	$7	4d
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana?	BUY Yes	7¢	$5	4d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$5	4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	5¢	$5	4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$21	4d
Will South Korea be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup	BUY Yes	23¢	$12	4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	11¢	$10	6d
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco?	BUY Yes	14¢	$21	8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	21¢	$12	9d
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama?	BUY Yes	12¢	$10	10d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway?	BUY Yes	20¢	$2	11d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 0 Norway?	BUY Yes	5¢	$10	11d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	5¢	$7	12d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	13¢	$21	12d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	25¢	$41	13d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.06 · official $17.06 (match) · 29 history records