Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:24:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
13 0x1326…fdff sports 89 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,350 (+27%) realized +$5,136 · open +$214
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip
Net edge+23%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%34W / 42L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day23.3pace
Fees−$321est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$2,671now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$7,638
other 4% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+44.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 +59.4% +44.3% 45% 45% +29.5%
≤30d 76 +59.4% +44.3% 45% 45% +29.5%
≤90d 76 +59.4% +44.3% 45% 45% +29.5%
all 76 +59.4% +44.3% 45% 45% +29.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +44.3% 45% +29.5%
10% ← realistic here +30.4% 45% +17.1%
15% +17.8% 45% +5.8%
20% +6.3% 43% -4.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +59% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +29% → late +89% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$420 vs −$164 · ×2.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.08 per $1 lost it wins $2.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$2,671
Realized+$5,136
Unrealized+$214
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses34 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$321
Open positions12
Markets (closed)76 / 89
History coverage6d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day23.3
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 76¢ $600 $835 +$235 (+39%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 51¢ 62¢ $600 $732 +$132 (+22%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 36¢ 100¢ $200 $555 +$355 (+178%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 58¢ 69¢ $327 $390 +$63 (+19%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 40¢ 40¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Over 29¢ 16¢ $70 $40 −$30 (-43%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Over 21¢ 11¢ $40 $21 −$19 (-48%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Over 15¢ 4¢ $50 $15 −$35 (-70%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Over 54¢ 0¢ $300 $3 −$297 (-99%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Over 34¢ 0¢ $130 $1 −$129 (-99%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 14¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $387 +$829 +214%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: A Jun 17 $103 +$768 +748%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Spread: France (- Jun 17 $103 +$1,417 +1379%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $710 +$661 +93%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $203 −$200 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $507 −$500 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 +$161 +158%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $152 +$94 +62%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $203 +$142 +70%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $82 +$281 +344%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $204 +$284 +139%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $203 −$200 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $153 −$150 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $166 +$79 +48%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $31 +$344 +1115%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $608 +$496 +82%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $102 +$192 +188%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $204 +$421 +206%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $711 +$747 +105%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1,105 +$962 +87%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $356 −$350 -98%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $304 +$271 +89%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $204 −$200 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $114 −$111 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $56 −$55 -98%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $204 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $393 +$309 +79%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $87 +$79 +91%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $406 −$400 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $400 −$394 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $102 +$181 +178%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $102 +$220 +216%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $405 +$257 +63%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $304 +$283 +93%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $103 +$522 +510%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $101 9m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $101 10m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $28 11m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $101 13m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $102 14m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $102 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $203 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Over 34¢ $133 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $304 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 14¢ $31 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $102 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $405 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $507 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $41 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $41 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 29¢ $71 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 21¢ $41 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 15¢ $51 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06- BUY 7¢ $51 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,372 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 4¢ $21 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $102 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $102 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $81 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $203 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $203 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $102 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $304 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $508 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,671.10 · official $2,721.16 · 160 history records