Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:02:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1329…fd4d sports 136 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$127 (-5%) realized −$149 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate45%61W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$67
14 days−$479
30 days−$437
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$115
politics 3% −$2
crypto 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -94.3% -94.8% 0% 0% -92.6%
≤30d 44 -50.0% -54.7% 20% 20% -61.0%
≤90d 109 -2.8% -12.1% 41% 39% -25.8%
all 135 +9.3% -1.1% 45% 39% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.1% 39% -15.2%
10% -10.5% 36% -23.3%
15% -19.2% 36% -30.7%
20% -27.1% 31% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$14 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$149
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses61 / 74
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)135 / 136
History coverage97d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Over 52¢ 90¢ $30 $52 +$22 (+74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $52 −$46 -88%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $21 −$21 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$20 +65%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$21 +103%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$6 -31%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$3 +34%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $39 −$24 -62%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 13 $42 +$7 +17%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$25 +245%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$21 +408%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $9 +$10 +101%
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) May 30 $10 +$10 +100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $20 +$22 +109%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 17 $17 −$10 -57%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 17 $20 +$11 +54%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their May 14 $2 +$6 +283%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o May 14 $10 −$9 -88%
LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 13 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 13 $50 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $30 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 6¢ $6 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $21 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $52 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 61¢ $20 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner SELL Gen.G 99¢ $50 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 50¢ $10 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 66¢ $20 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 99¢ $41 7d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 42¢ $20 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 48¢ $20 7d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports 40¢ $20 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL Gen.G 44¢ $14 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 62¢ $20 7d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $13 8d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 74¢ $10 8d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Team WE 99¢ $35 8d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Team WE 32¢ $5 8d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Team WE 25¢ $5 8d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Team WE 99¢ $26 8d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team WE 19¢ $5 8d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 22¢ $15 9d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY JD Gaming 27¢ $9 15d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL JD Gaming 100¢ $19 15d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY JD Gaming 49¢ $9 15d
Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) BUY Anyones Legend 34¢ $20 20d
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) BUY Anyones Legend 39¢ $16 20d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports 20¢ $2 21d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports 20¢ $1 21d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports 20¢ $2 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.21 · official $52.01 (match) · 375 history records