Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:00:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

13
0x132a…152f
other · 7 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
−$7 -44%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage73d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%
Chart Positions 1 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? No 49¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? No 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Kosovo vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 05 $1 $0 +3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 05 $1 +$1 +85%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-04-25? May 10 $1 $0 +27%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Kosovo vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Mar 31 $7 −$7 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 43% −$7
other 36% −$1
world 22% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 49¢ $3 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 97¢ $1 18d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $1 33d
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY No 78¢ $1 51d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY No 48¢ $2 55d
Kosovo vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $7 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +30.2% +17.8% 100% 33% +20.8%
≤90d 6 -13.7% -21.9% 67% 33% -55.5%
all 6 -13.7% -21.9% 67% 33% -55.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 33% -55.5%
10% -29.4% 33% -59.7%
15% -36.2% 17% -63.6%
20% -42.4% 17% -67.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.45 · official $2.45 (match) · 11 history records