Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:25:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x132f…453b other 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$286,065 (+46%) realized +$283,150 · open +$2,915
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%18W / 23L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$14,173per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$921est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$32,122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,460
7 days+$208,479
14 days+$225,702
30 days+$272,651
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$232,550
sports 8% +$42,993
crypto 0% +$34
politics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -21.6% -29.0% 43% 39% +29.1%
≤30d 41 -13.0% -21.2% 44% 39% +32.6%
≤90d 41 -13.0% -21.2% 44% 39% +32.6%
all 41 -13.0% -21.2% 44% 39% +32.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.2% 39% +32.6%
10% ← realistic here -28.8% 39% +19.9%
15% -35.7% 39% +8.3%
20% -42.0% 34% -2.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +47% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$4,652) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19,378 vs −$3,311 · ×5.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.58 per $1 lost it wins $4.58
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$32,122
Realized+$283,150
Unrealized+$2,915
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses18 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$921
Open positions3
Markets (closed)41 / 44
History coverage24d
Avg bet$14,173
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $28,710 $31,637 +$2,928 (+10%)
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Acend 30¢ 30¢ $478 $475 −$3 (-1%)
Trump Media x TAE Technologies merger closed by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $19 $9 −$10 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 28 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $2,547 −$2,494 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $722 −$706 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $3,842 +$3,441 +90%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $2,026 +$1,545 +76%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $3,037 +$2,048 +67%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,266 −$573 -45%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 27 $4,061 −$4,000 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $741 −$721 -97%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $1,849 +$1,104 +60%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $6,548 −$6,400 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $4,937 −$4,861 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10,084 −$2,350 -23%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $433 −$424 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $2,070 −$2,040 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $8,277 −$8,201 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $254 +$236 +93%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $4,248 −$4,200 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 24 $3,686 +$3,757 +102%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $301,257 +$204,940 +68%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $106,492 +$47,206 +44%
Will "Banana" be said 10+ times during the IEM Cologne 2026 Grand Fina Jun 22 $100 +$100 +100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $27,945 −$18,929 -68%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $505 −$496 -98%
Curaçao leading at halftime? Jun 20 $952 −$928 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3,369 +$7,631 +226%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $4,654 −$4,652 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3,177 −$3,120 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $21,888 +$14,759 +67%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $1,939 +$2,087 +108%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,900 −$1,876 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,976 −$1,929 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $19,581 +$8,941 +46%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3,073 −$3,000 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3,053 +$2,852 +93%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $1,980 −$1,951 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,093 −$1,093 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5,880 +$15,075 +256%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,216 −$1,206 -99%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,191 +$34 +3%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $19,998 +$33,047 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $18,603 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $3,903 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P BUY Acend 30¢ $488 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 29¢ $2,547 4h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 92¢ $9 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $204 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $3,842 15h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $518 26h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $2,026 28h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 21¢ $693 28h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 49¢ $4,061 30h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $1,266 30h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $3,037 30h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $6,720 35h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 7¢ $741 39h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 34¢ $2,953 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $6,548 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $4,937 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $2,602 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 38¢ $14 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 38¢ $5,535 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 38¢ $9 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 38¢ $36 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 38¢ $4 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 38¢ $35 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 38¢ $226 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 38¢ $31 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 38¢ $814 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 38¢ $45 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32,122.00 · official $32,122.00 (match) · 360 history records