Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:46:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
13 0x132f…275d other 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$41 (+7%) realized +$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +79% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +62% what you keep after slip
Net edge+62%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$29
sports 32% $0
politics 10% $0
tech 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+61.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +78.7% +61.7% 100% 100% +61.7%
≤30d 1 +78.7% +61.7% 100% 100% +61.7%
≤90d 1 +78.7% +61.7% 100% 100% +61.7%
all 1 +78.7% +61.7% 100% 100% +61.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +61.7% 100% +61.7%
10% +46.2% 100% +46.2%
15% +32.1% 100% +32.1%
20% +19.1% 100% +19.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +79% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +79% · $-wt +79% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1 / 23
History coverage16d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $37 +$29 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $40 1h
Will Garlin Gilchrist win the 2026 Michigan Governor Democratic primar BUY No 100¢ $33 6h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $38 17h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $15 17h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 71¢ $18 18h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 71¢ $18 18h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $20 38h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 99¢ $26 2d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $37 7d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 95¢ $48 7d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 40¢ $21 8d
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY No 50¢ $4 8d
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY No 35¢ $6 8d
Will the National Action Party (PAN) win the second most seats in the BUY No 90¢ $6 8d
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be at least 56.0 in June? BUY No 94¢ $6 8d
Will Goiás EC vs. Grêmio Novorizontino end in a draw? BUY No 67¢ $27 15d
Will Club ABB win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 27¢ $2 15d
Will Club Aurora win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 90¢ $47 15d
Will England vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? BUY No 93¢ $33 15d
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $29 15d
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? BUY No 52¢ $18 15d
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? BUY No 82¢ $28 15d
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? BUY No 82¢ $5 15d
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? BUY No 99¢ $9 16d
Will White House post 120-139 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 16d
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day BUY No 98¢ $7 16d
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on June 12, 2026 BUY No 93¢ $6 16d
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary electio BUY No 78¢ $10 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 38 history records