Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:25:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1332…2b23 sports 164 markets active 2h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,345 (-5%) realized −$1,429 · open +$84
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%46W / 117L
Whale WR8%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$142est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$237now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$755
7 days−$971
14 days−$906
30 days−$1,250
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$235
sports 26% +$834
world 25% −$1,694
politics 3% −$156
crypto 3% −$475
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -44.8% -50.1% 25% 25% -63.8%
≤30d 26 -22.8% -30.1% 27% 27% -37.7%
≤90d 156 -4.0% -13.1% 29% 29% -15.1%
all 163 -7.7% -16.5% 28% 28% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 28% -15.9%
10% -24.5% 28% -23.9%
15% -31.8% 27% -31.3%
20% -38.5% 27% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 8% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$198 vs −$93 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$237
Realized−$1,429
Unrealized+$84
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses46 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)8%
Est. fees paid−$142
Open positions1
Markets (closed)163 / 164
History coverage111d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $153 $237 +$84 (+55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 95 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 27 $1,217 −$755 -62%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 25 $204 −$200 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $101 +$84 +83%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $102 +$155 +152%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $62 −$60 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $307 −$300 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $102 −$100 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $304 +$284 +93%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 06 $31 +$89 +291%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 06 $31 −$30 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $31 +$56 +184%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $102 +$107 +105%
Ebola pandemic in 2026? Jun 04 $711 −$163 -23%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 04 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $206 −$85 -41%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 02 $31 −$30 -98%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? Jun 01 $43 −$43 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 01 $41 −$40 -98%
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 May 31 $100 −$2 -2%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets May 31 $20 −$20 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 31 $41 +$52 +129%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies May 31 $31 −$30 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 27 $82 +$196 +240%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox May 27 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Atlanta Braves win the 2026 National League Championship Series? May 26 $103 −$6 -6%
GTA VI released before June 2026? May 26 $418 −$361 -86%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 25 $41 −$40 -98%
Nothing Ever Happens: May May 25 $150 +$93 +62%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 25 $104 −$100 -96%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles May 24 $21 +$146 +712%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 24 $31 −$30 -98%
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins May 24 $41 −$40 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 24 $133 +$117 +89%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds May 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 18-24? May 23 $210 −$56 -26%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 23 $102 +$155 +152%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 23 $21 −$20 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 23 $31 +$46 +152%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 23 $72 −$70 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 22 $41 −$40 -98%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $33 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 26¢ $204 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 50¢ $102 3d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 54¢ $101 6d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 39¢ $102 7d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $117 10d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $28 11d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 12d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 12d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 12d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 12d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 12d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 12d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 16¢ $62 13d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 32¢ $31 13d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $104 16d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Houston Astros 32¢ $51 16d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 26¢ $102 16d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 28¢ $204 16d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 45¢ $102 19d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 49¢ $102 20d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 52¢ $203 20d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Milwaukee Brewers 25¢ $31 21d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers BUY Cleveland Guardians 23¢ $31 21d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Toronto Blue Jays 45¢ $10 22d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Toronto Blue Jays 31¢ $20 22d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $152 23d
Ebola pandemic in 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $549 23d
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Texas Rangers 17¢ $20 23d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 48¢ $102 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $237.15 · official $237.15 (match) · 447 history records