Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:00:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
13 0x1332…8cd5 world 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 524d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$51 (+2%) realized +$51 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate44%33W / 42L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$26
14 days−$25
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% −$27
other 20% −$3
politics 5% −$1
sports 2% +$44
tech 2% −$1
culture 2% $0
finance 1% +$36
weather 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)+14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -4.3% -13.4% 25% 0% -14.4%
≤30d 33 +60.5% +45.2% 33% 9% -10.7%
≤90d 36 +55.5% +40.7% 33% 8% -10.4%
all 75 +26.8% +14.7% 44% 15% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.7% 15% -9.1%
10% +3.7% 11% -17.8%
15% -6.3% 7% -25.8%
20% -15.5% 5% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +52% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.05 per $1 lost it wins $2.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

524d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses33 / 42
Open positions0
Markets (closed)75 / 75
History coverage524d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 75 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $51 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $142 −$5 -4%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $53 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $22 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $112 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $64 −$21 -33%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $26 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $68 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $70 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $190 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $67 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $62 +$1 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $68 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $60 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $67 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $178 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 04 $9 $0 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $67 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $130 −$2 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $71 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 31 $71 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $116 −$4 -4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $93 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 29 $73 +$2 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 28 $53 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $74 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $21 +$36 +172%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $8 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $5 $0 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $20 +$4 +20%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $1 $0 +17%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 13 $230 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 11 $230 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 27 $7 −$1 -16%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 265–279 times June 13–20? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 19 $1 $0 +6%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between Jun 08 $8 $0 -1%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 07 $8 $0 +1%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $23 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $1 $0 +2%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Apr 09 $55 −$1 -1%
Will federal spending decrease by more than $2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 Apr 08 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Left be part of the next German government? Apr 07 $55 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Apr 06 $55 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $51 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $51 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $50 47h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $50 47h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $3 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 29¢ $3 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 29¢ $19 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 29¢ $22 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $27 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $27 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $6 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $6 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $29 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $17 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $45 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $50 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $50 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 35¢ $16 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 35¢ $28 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 52¢ $64 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $8 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $52 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $33 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $33 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $11 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $11 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 268 history records