Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:51:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
13 0x1338…f574 sports 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 282d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,863 (-17%) realized −$1,857 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate55%27W / 22L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$194now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$292
7 days−$640
14 days−$829
30 days−$829
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$1,854
crypto 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -36.1% -42.2% 38% 38% -33.1%
≤30d 14 -40.7% -46.3% 36% 36% -37.9%
≤90d 14 -40.7% -46.3% 36% 36% -37.9%
all 49 -12.9% -21.2% 55% 51% -25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 51% -25.8%
10% -28.8% 35% -32.9%
15% -35.6% 29% -39.4%
20% -42.0% 20% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$170 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

282d coverage
Net worth$194
Realized−$1,857
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses27 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage282d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray Alastair Gray 48¢ 46¢ $200 $194 −$6 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $303 −$300 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $606 +$104 +17%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $339 +$114 +34%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 19 $87 −$86 -99%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $126 −$124 -98%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 18 $108 −$107 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $385 −$166 -43%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $178 +$39 +22%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $97 +$80 +82%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $103 −$5 -5%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $127 −$125 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $138 −$137 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $90 +$72 +80%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5) Jun 07 $191 −$189 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Nov 16 $167 −$167 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO3) Oct 30 $397 +$49 +12%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 30 $280 +$120 +43%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Legacy (BO3) Oct 29 $100 +$113 +112%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs fnatic (BO3) Oct 29 $199 +$32 +16%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Gentle Mates (BO3) Oct 29 $618 +$28 +4%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Astralis (BO3) Oct 29 $154 +$44 +29%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) Oct 29 $180 +$105 +59%
Will Atalanta vs. AC Milan end in a draw? Oct 28 $108 +$72 +67%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO3) Oct 28 $150 −$140 -93%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs Gentle Mates (BO3) Oct 28 $112 +$136 +122%
Rolex Paris Masters: Denis Shapovalov vs Joao Fonseca Oct 28 $98 +$14 +14%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) Oct 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Tallon Griekspoor Oct 28 $236 −$236 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) Oct 07 $65 +$30 +46%
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Jaume Munar vs Novak Djokovic Oct 07 $512 +$55 +11%
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Holger Rune Oct 07 $137 +$16 +12%
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Jesper de Jong vs Jakub Mensik Oct 06 $33 −$12 -36%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Oct 06 $54 +$40 +74%
Shanghai Rolex Masters: Learner Tien vs Cameron Norrie Oct 06 $106 +$72 +68%
China Open: Amanda Anisimova vs Coco Gauff Oct 04 $64 −$54 -84%
Counter-Strike: Copenhagen Wolves vs FORZE Reload Sep 27 $236 −$236 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs. HEROIC Sep 12 $566 −$492 -87%
Solana Up or Down - September 12, 3PM ET Sep 12 $96 +$5 +5%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs. BetBoom Team Sep 12 $48 +$48 +100%
FISSURE Playground 2: GamerLegion vs. TYLOO Sep 12 $381 +$215 +56%
League of Legends: EDward Gaming vs. JD Gaming Sep 12 $269 −$269 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs. Nigma Galaxy Sep 12 $427 −$225 -53%
Dota 2: Team Tidebound vs. Team Falcons Sep 12 $563 −$563 -100%
Commanders vs. Packers Sep 12 $289 +$91 +32%
Nationals vs. Marlins Sep 12 $192 +$95 +50%
NRFI: Nationals vs. Marlins Sep 11 $100 −$98 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs. HEROIC Sep 11 $273 −$4 -1%
League of Legends: KT Rolster vs. BNK FEARX Sep 11 $235 +$39 +16%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs. Tundra Esports Sep 11 $168 +$66 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray BUY Alastair Gray 48¢ $203 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 66¢ $303 15h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $557 15h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 62¢ $153 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 36¢ $153 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 63¢ $199 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 58¢ $253 20h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 90¢ $452 20h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 67¢ $339 21h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) BUY Spirit 51¢ $2 22h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) BUY Spirit 51¢ $85 22h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 45¢ $126 28h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Ground Zero 66¢ $108 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $168 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 46¢ $114 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 50¢ $54 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $217 5d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 86¢ $217 5d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 70¢ $178 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $177 5d
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt SELL Mattia Bellucci 99¢ $0 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 54¢ $97 5d
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt SELL Mattia Bellucci 61¢ $97 5d
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt BUY Mattia Bellucci 63¢ $103 5d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 47¢ $127 5d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 58¢ $15 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 57¢ $22 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 57¢ $101 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 88¢ $162 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 48¢ $90 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $194.22 · official $194.22 (match) · 136 history records