Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:12:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
13 0x1339…837f sports 110 markets active 2d ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,029 (+58%) realized +$1,029 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate68%73W / 34L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$1,156
crypto 23% −$129
other 2% +$2
tech 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +22.2% +10.5% 74% 56% +14.6%
≤30d 27 +22.2% +10.5% 74% 56% +14.6%
≤90d 107 +0.7% -8.9% 68% 46% +43.1%
all 107 +0.7% -8.9% 68% 46% +43.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 46% +43.1%
10% -17.6% 36% +29.4%
15% -25.6% 30% +16.9%
20% -32.9% 26% +5.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +58% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$7 · ×2.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.52 per $1 lost it wins $5.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$1,029
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses73 / 34
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions3
Markets (closed)107 / 110
History coverage66d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $2 +$2 +101%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Moez Echargui Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia Jun 15 $1 +$1 +109%
Nottingham 2: Tristan Boyer vs Jay Clarke Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Poznan: Duje Ajdukovic vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Franco Roncadelli Jun 15 $1 $0 +21%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $1 +$2 +197%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $2 +$3 +134%
Nottingham 2: Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +159%
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +124%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $MARS? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will CD Riestra win on 2026-05-05? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +48%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-05? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +73%
Will Club Independiente Petrolero win on 2026-05-05? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +76%
Will Academia Puerto Cabello win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $3 −$3 -98%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 05 $1 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 05 $1 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 05 $1 +$1 +118%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 05 $1 +$1 +139%
XRP Up or Down - April 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 22 $2 +$1 +26%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 22 $3 $0 +12%
XRP Up or Down - April 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 22 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 22 $53 −$42 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 21 $141 −$137 -97%
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Valorant: Barça eSports vs FALKE ESPORTS (BO5) - VCL Spain: Rising Pha Apr 21 $1 $0 +27%
Will Estoril Praia win on 2026-04-20? Apr 21 $1 $0 +2%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Eintracht Frankfurt vs CGN Esports (BO3) - VCL DACH: Evoluti Apr 20 $1 +$1 +86%
Valorant: Eternal Fire Passion vs Dark Passage (BO3) - VCL Türkiye: Bi Apr 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Watford FC vs. Sheffield United FC end in a draw? Apr 19 $1 $0 +35%
Will Bristol City FC vs. Norwich City FC end in a draw? Apr 19 $1 $0 +37%
Will Wrexham AFC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $1 +$1 +72%
Will West Bromwich Albion FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $2 +$2 +117%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Franco Roncadelli BUY Facundo Acosta 82¢ $1 2d
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet BUY Kyrian Jacquet 52¢ $1 2d
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith BUY Clement Chidekh 35¢ $1 2d
Nottingham 2: Tristan Boyer vs Jay Clarke BUY Jay Clarke 51¢ $2 2d
Dublin: Juan Pablo Ficovich vs Nicolas Mejia BUY Nicolas Mejia 47¢ $1 2d
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Henrique Rocha 49¢ $2 2d
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Moez Echargui BUY Jaime Faria 84¢ $1 2d
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Stefano Napolitano 49¢ $2 2d
Poznan: Duje Ajdukovic vs Dalibor Svrcina BUY Dalibor Svrcina 83¢ $1 2d
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Nuno Borges 29¢ $2 2d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Zachary Svajda 28¢ $1 2d
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio BUY Raul Brancaccio 26¢ $1 2d
Nottingham 2: Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate BUY Alastair Gray 45¢ $1 2d
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Darwin Blanch 44¢ $1 2d
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 42¢ $2 2d
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Terence Atmane 33¢ $1 2d
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken BUY Harry Wendelken 34¢ $1 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 2d
Will Academia Puerto Cabello win on 2026-05-05? BUY No 51¢ $3 42d
Will CD Riestra win on 2026-05-05? BUY No 67¢ $1 42d
Will Club Independiente Petrolero win on 2026-05-05? BUY No 56¢ $2 42d
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-05? BUY No 57¢ $2 42d
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 55d
XRP Up or Down - April 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 55d
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 55d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.77 · official $3.77 (match) · 237 history records