Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:36:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x133a…504a sports 1269 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$3,225 (+6%) realized +$1,192 · open −$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%567W / 693L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day100.8pace
Fees−$946est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$345now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$976
7 days−$4,918
14 days−$3,647
30 days+$1,192
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,144
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 600 -33.7% -40.0% 29% 28% -27.1%
≤30d 1260 -0.1% -9.6% 45% 43% -7.6%
≤90d 1260 -0.1% -9.6% 45% 43% -7.6%
all 1260 -0.1% -9.6% 45% 43% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover100.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 43% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 42% -16.4%
15% -26.2% 41% -24.5%
20% -33.4% 37% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$34 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$345
Realized+$1,192
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses567 / 693
Est. fees paid−$946
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1260 / 1269
History coverage23d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day100.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 1260 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 3.5 Over 21¢ 81¢ $35 $135 +$100 (+286%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Dalma Galfi 39¢ 30¢ $166 $124 −$42 (-25%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Aoi Ito 30¢ 26¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-12%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Under 58¢ 53¢ $21 $19 −$2 (-9%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yuan Yue Yuan 25¢ 16¢ $30 $19 −$11 (-38%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Ella Seidel 32¢ 8¢ $35 $8 −$27 (-77%)
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5) Los Angeles Angels 46¢ 58¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+26%)
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) Los Angeles Angels 25¢ 4¢ $35 $5 −$30 (-86%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Under 43¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-99%)
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Veronika Erjavec 21¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Netherlands 26¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Leyre Romero Gormaz Leyre Romero Gormaz 46¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
David Jorda Sanchis vs. Tristan Boyer: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 37¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Solana Sierra 28¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Set 1 Winner: Demin vs Chepelev Demin 26¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Laura Samson 53¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Shiraishi vs Jangjun Kim Hikaru Shiraishi 37¢ 0¢ $83 $0 −$83 (-100%)
ITF Wichita: Sebastian Gorzny vs Kenta Miyoshi Kenta Miyoshi 48¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko Vitaliy Sachko 35¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Alicia Dudeney vs Yulia Putintseva Yulia Putintseva 42¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Mia Pohankova vs Tamara Korpatsch Tamara Korpatsch 26¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Hannah Klugman vs Anastasia Zakharova Anastasia Zakharova 45¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton Adam Walton 21¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Under 21¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 35¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $36 +$42 +119%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $143 +$207 +146%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $45 +$33 +74%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 171.5 Jun 14 $36 +$46 +129%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $18 −$18 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $17 −$17 -98%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $54 −$35 -64%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $5 +$6 +124%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $23 −$23 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $5 +$7 +129%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $28 +$38 +134%
Joventut vs. Valencia: O/U 177.5 Jun 14 $71 −$70 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification (Doubles): Hijikata/Paul vs Goransso Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Mihalikova/Nicholls vs Fernandez/Siegemu Jun 14 $35 +$27 +76%
IR Tanger vs. US Yacoub El Mansour: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $35 +$27 +76%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin Jun 14 $97 +$253 +261%
Nottingham 2: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Mackenzie McDonald Jun 14 $36 +$39 +109%
HUS Agadir vs. RS Berkane: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $34 −$33 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $178 −$95 -53%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Himeno Sakatsume vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 14 $107 +$26 +24%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $143 −$59 -42%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $71 +$54 +75%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $142 −$75 -53%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston Jun 14 $79 −$78 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $107 −$32 -30%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 14 $178 −$102 -57%
Set 1 Winner: Kovacevic vs Perricard Jun 14 $13 +$11 +86%
Set 1 Winner: Shelton vs Fritz Jun 14 $36 +$46 +129%
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $31 +$39 +129%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $46 +$50 +108%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 14 $72 −$70 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Domingues vs Gomez Jun 14 $71 +$61 +86%
Set 1 Winner: Sun vs Kalinina Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
ITF Monastir: Dominick Mosejczuk vs Cesar Bouchelaghem Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
ITF Varnamo: Niels Mcdonald vs Sandro Kopp Jun 14 $76 −$52 -69%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $91 +$68 +74%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $30 +$35 +114%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $74 +$47 +63%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $14 +$16 +109%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 173.5 Jun 14 $71 +$69 +97%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $133 −$54 -40%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $11 −$11 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $22 −$22 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $6 2m
CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $36 44m
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 26¢ $18 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $17 1h
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 25¢ $36 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 43¢ $36 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $36 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $23 2h
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 33¢ $8 2h
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Katarzyna Kawa 52¢ $10 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 27¢ $10 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 40¢ $71 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 40¢ $71 2h
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 171.5 BUY Over 43¢ $36 3h
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Atlanta Dream 45¢ $36 3h
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Toronto Tempo 43¢ $9 3h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 44¢ $5 3h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 43¢ $5 4h
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 47¢ $36 4h
Joventut vs. Valencia: O/U 177.5 BUY Over 46¢ $71 4h
HSBC Championships, Qualification (Doubles): Hijikata/Paul vs Goransso BUY Goransson/King 55¢ $10 6h
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Mihalikova/Nicholls vs Fernandez/Siegemu BUY Mihalikova/Nicholls 56¢ $35 6h
HUS Agadir vs. RS Berkane: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 35¢ $34 6h
IR Tanger vs. US Yacoub El Mansour: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $35 6h
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng BUY Shintaro Mochizuki 42¢ $28 6h
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt BUY Alex Bolt 42¢ $71 7h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Himeno Sakatsume vs Alicia Dudeney BUY Himeno Sakatsume 53¢ $71 7h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston BUY Taylah Preston 48¢ $8 7h
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin BUY Alba Berlin 21¢ $36 7h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Antonia Ruzic vs Taylah Preston BUY Taylah Preston 41¢ $36 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $344.76 · official $344.76 (match) · 3500 history records