Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:47:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
13 0x133d…17ea crypto 688 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%327W / 359L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day54.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days−$651
14 days−$333
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$19
other 1% +$1
sports 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 415 -25.9% -33.0% 39% 38% -35.1%
≤30d 686 -7.0% -15.8% 48% 47% -10.1%
≤90d 686 -7.0% -15.8% 48% 47% -10.1%
all 686 -7.0% -15.8% 48% 47% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.8% 47% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.9% 47% -18.7%
15% -31.2% 46% -26.6%
20% -38.0% 46% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses327 / 359
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)686 / 688
History coverage17d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day54.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 686 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $13 $16 +$3 (+25%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $14 $11 −$3 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 245 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $0 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.60 · official $27.60 (match) · 1406 history records