Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:08:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1340…7f01 sports 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$196 (+14%) realized +$199 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate31%22W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days−$56
14 days−$70
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$48
crypto 2% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +5.0% -5.0% 42% 35% -13.1%
≤30d 64 -3.1% -12.3% 33% 30% -12.9%
≤90d 71 -8.0% -16.8% 31% 28% -13.3%
all 71 -8.0% -16.8% 31% 28% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 28% -13.3%
10% -24.7% 24% -21.6%
15% -32.0% 24% -29.1%
20% -38.7% 23% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$10 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$199
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses22 / 49
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 73
History coverage32d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Walczaki 41¢ 18¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Playoff Jun 26 $80 −$75 -94%
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova Jun 26 $226 −$145 -64%
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn Jun 26 $206 +$10 +5%
Piracicaba: Paulo Dos Santos vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Jun 26 $5 −$1 -22%
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Inaki Montes Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Madison Keys Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko Jun 26 $30 −$1 -3%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 26 $81 −$81 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 26 $150 +$79 +53%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 26 $25 +$136 +552%
Valorant: Dplus vs X-CAST (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam Jun 25 $121 −$13 -11%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $58 −$57 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 25 $56 +$51 +92%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 25 $5 +$12 +226%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 25 $41 +$44 +109%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 25 $5 +$5 +97%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Division One (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$1 -29%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $60 +$26 +44%
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER Jun 24 $17 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +134%
Valorant: Contra vs LYON (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Seas Jun 24 $1 $0 +14%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 20 $4 $0 +9%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Jun 20 $2 −$1 -98%
Overwatch: ZETA DIVISION vs ZANSIDE GAMING (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 G Jun 20 $4 −$3 -66%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $1 +$3 +276%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising (BO3) - United21 Grou Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 19 $1 +$2 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $12 −$4 -33%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 19 $2 −$1 -49%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -95%
Overwatch: ZANSIDE GAMING vs Cheeseburger (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Gr Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Overwatch: Falcons vs O2 Blast (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A Jun 19 $4 −$4 -97%
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs So:sweet (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Jun 19 $38 +$4 +12%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 19 $7 −$1 -11%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $4 −$2 -49%
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs Dplus (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula BUY Walczaki 41¢ $5 49m
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Playoff SELL MASQ $5 53m
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Playoff BUY MASQ 75¢ $80 1h
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova SELL Valerio Aboian 28¢ $80 1h
Piracicaba: Valerio Aboian vs Hernan Casanova BUY Valerio Aboian 77¢ $226 1h
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn SELL Ethan Quinn 100¢ $215 2h
Piracicaba: Paulo Dos Santos vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida SELL Paulo Dos Santos $4 2h
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn SELL Nuno Borges $1 2h
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 93¢ $200 2h
Piracicaba: Paulo Dos Santos vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida BUY Paulo Dos Santos 11¢ $5 2h
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn BUY Nuno Borges 35¢ $5 2h
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Inaki Montes BUY Andres Santamarta 16¢ $2 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Madison Keys BUY Petra Marcinko 11¢ $5 3h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY MOUZ 23¢ $5 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko SELL Jelena Ostapenko 37¢ $29 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko BUY Jelena Ostapenko 34¢ $13 5h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko BUY Jelena Ostapenko 31¢ $1 5h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko BUY Jelena Ostapenko 40¢ $15 5h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets SELL Chicago Cubs 100¢ $230 13h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 89¢ $99 13h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets BUY Chicago Cubs 42¢ $51 13h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 20¢ $10 14h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals SELL Philadelphia Phillies 94¢ $160 14h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 77¢ $70 15h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Philadelphia Phillies 11¢ $9 16h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Philadelphia Phillies 16¢ $10 16h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals AND New York Yankees vs BUY $1 16h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Philadelphia Phillies 19¢ $5 16h
Valorant: Dplus vs X-CAST (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY X-CAST 23¢ $20 31h
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam SELL Rune Eaters 11¢ $7 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.13 · official $2.13 (match) · 172 history records