Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:24:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1340…f493 sports 18 markets active 5d ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$15 (-4%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%12W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$16
crypto 30% −$30
other 13% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -36.4% -42.5% 50% 50% -32.7%
≤30d 18 -12.7% -21.1% 67% 50% -14.1%
≤90d 18 -12.7% -21.1% 67% 50% -14.1%
all 18 -12.7% -21.1% 67% 50% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 50% -14.1%
10% -28.6% 39% -22.3%
15% -35.5% 22% -29.8%
20% -41.8% 6% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 40% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$14 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses12 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage6d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $25 +$6 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $25 +$6 +23%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $20 −$19 -96%
Libema Open (Doubles): Arribage/Olivetti vs Borges/Polmans Jun 10 $30 +$4 +13%
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Paul Jubb Jun 10 $10 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Anna Blinkova Jun 09 $20 +$1 +3%
Libema Open: Greet Minnen vs Janice Tjen Jun 09 $37 +$13 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 09 $15 +$3 +23%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $20 +$8 +38%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 09 $28 +$3 +10%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 06 $25 +$3 +13%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $10 +$6 +57%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $6 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 64¢ $18 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $31 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 6d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage SELL NRG $0 6d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage SELL NRG $0 6d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 85¢ $20 6d
Libema Open (Doubles): Arribage/Olivetti vs Borges/Polmans SELL Arribage/Olivetti 100¢ $34 6d
Libema Open (Doubles): Arribage/Olivetti vs Borges/Polmans BUY Arribage/Olivetti 88¢ $30 6d
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Paul Jubb SELL Tristan Schoolkate 67¢ $8 7d
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Paul Jubb BUY Tristan Schoolkate 81¢ $10 7d
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Anna Blinkova BUY Emma Raducanu 97¢ $20 7d
Libema Open: Greet Minnen vs Janice Tjen SELL Greet Minnen 91¢ $51 7d
Libema Open: Greet Minnen vs Janice Tjen BUY Greet Minnen 66¢ $37 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 8d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Milwaukee Brewers 72¢ $20 8d
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Seattle Mariners 91¢ $28 10d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 88¢ $25 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records