Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:24:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
13 0x1342…66ba other 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$826 (+24%) realized +$850 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate69%11W / 5L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$174per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$639now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$754
crypto 11% +$230
sports 7% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)+29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +43.2% +29.5% 69% 69% +22.4%
≤30d 16 +43.2% +29.5% 69% 69% +22.4%
≤90d 16 +43.2% +29.5% 69% 69% +22.4%
all 16 +43.2% +29.5% 69% 69% +22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +29.5% 69% +22.4%
10% +17.1% 69% +10.7%
15% +5.8% 62% +0.0%
20% -4.6% 38% -9.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late +45% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$83 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.35 per $1 lost it wins $3.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$639
Realized+$850
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses11 / 5
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 20
History coverage5d
Avg bet$174
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 69¢ 66¢ $663 $639 −$24 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $390 +$230 +59%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $229 +$161 +70%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $395 +$235 +59%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $192 +$202 +105%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $58 +$133 +227%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $254 +$103 +41%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $367 +$132 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $136 +$62 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $136 +$33 +24%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $182 +$91 +50%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$5 +473%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $231 −$230 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $669 29m
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 92¢ $620 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $390 4h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $229 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $630 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $395 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $192 44h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 71¢ $100 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 71¢ $91 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $58 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $357 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $254 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in BUY 9¢ $10 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 22¢ $26 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia BUY 7¢ $10 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 87¢ $499 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 63¢ $367 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $136 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $136 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $272 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $182 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $231 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $638.98 · official $638.98 (match) · 33 history records