Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:27:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

13 0x1345…8f0b other 19 markets active 2d ago coverage 39d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL −$886 (-15%) realized −$318 · open −$568

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +95% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +77% what you keep after slip

Net edge+77%after slip

Net WR17%break-even

Win rate17%1W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$318per market

Trades / day0.6pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit26%portable

Net worth$4,864now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$45

7 days−$56

14 days−$56

30 days−$56

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +17%

net ROI/market (all)+76.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+290.6%	+253.4%	33%	33%	-53.9%
≤30d	3	+290.6%	+253.4%	33%	33%	-53.9%
≤90d	6	+95.3%	+76.7%	17%	17%	-85.6%
all	6	+95.3%	+76.7%	17%	17%	-85.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+76.7%	17%	-85.6%
10%	+59.8%	17%	-87.0%
15%	+44.3%	17%	-88.3%
20%	+30.2%	17%	-89.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -84% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +95% · $-wt -84% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$54 vs −$73 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.15 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage

Net worth$4,864

Realized−$318

Unrealized−$568

Win rate (resolved)17%

Wins / losses1 / 5

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions12

Markets (closed)6 / 19

History coverage39d

Avg bet$318

Trades / day0.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 12 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	18¢	$750	$859	+$109 (+15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	10¢	$800	$804	+$4 (+0%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$850	$789	−$61 (-7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	13¢	$900	$732	−$168 (-19%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	6¢	$600	$640	+$40 (+7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	8¢	7¢	$750	$587	−$163 (-22%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$250	$188	−$62 (-25%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$150	$137	−$12 (-8%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$250	$94	−$156 (-62%)
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$107	$32	−$75 (-70%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$15	$1	−$14 (-92%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$10	$1	−$9 (-91%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$46	−$45	-98%
Ecuador leading at halftime?	Jun 14	$67	−$65	-98%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Jun 12	$5	+$54	+1072%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	May 12	$122	−$117	-96%
Will Freiburg win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?	May 07	$89	−$87	-98%
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	May 07	$52	−$50	-96%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	35¢	$46	39h
Ecuador leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	19¢	$67	2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	BUY	18¢	$77	2d
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$110	4d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	SELL Yes	40¢	$59	4d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$154	6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$617	6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$923	6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$308	6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$461	6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$462	6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	10¢	$359	6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$308	6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$462	6d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$257	6d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$257	6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$206	6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$360	6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$309	6d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?	BUY Yes	22¢	$122	35d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?	BUY Yes	2¢	$10	39d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	BUY Yes	3¢	$5	39d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?	BUY Yes	1¢	$15	39d
Will Freiburg win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?	BUY Yes	17¢	$89	40d
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	BUY No	9¢	$52	40d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,863.60 · official $4,863.60 (match) · 32 history records