Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:59:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1346…af38 weather 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$27 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate86%59W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day40.7pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 96% +$22
other 3% +$2
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -3.0% -12.2% 86% 10% -9.6%
≤30d 69 -3.0% -12.2% 86% 10% -9.6%
≤90d 69 -3.0% -12.2% 86% 10% -9.6%
all 69 -3.0% -12.2% 86% 10% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 10% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 1% -18.2%
15% -28.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses59 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)69 / 71
History coverage4d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day40.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23? No 74¢ 95¢ $85 $110 +$25 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 23? Jun 23 $52 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 23? Jun 23 $25 +$4 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 23? Jun 23 $12 −$5 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 23? Jun 23 $18 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 23? Jun 23 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 23? Jun 23 $17 −$8 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 23? Jun 23 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 23? Jun 23 $11 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 23 Jun 23 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 23? Jun 23 $6 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on June 23? Jun 23 $1 $0 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $51 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $6 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $8 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 22? Jun 22 $47 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? Jun 22 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 22? Jun 22 $40 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 22? Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 21? Jun 22 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 21? Jun 22 $22 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 21? Jun 21 $9 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $4 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 21? Jun 21 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $16 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 21? Jun 21 $3 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 +$2 +10%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 20? Jun 21 $6 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 20? Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 20? Jun 21 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $25 +$3 +13%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $6 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23? BUY No 73¢ $55 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 23? SELL No 94¢ $55 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23? BUY No 75¢ $32 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $29 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 23? SELL No 40¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 23? BUY No 82¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 23? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 23? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 23? BUY No 90¢ $46 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $11 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 23? SELL No 47¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 23? BUY No 88¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 23? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 23? BUY No 98¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 23? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 23? BUY No 97¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 23? BUY No 66¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 23? BUY No 95¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 23? SELL No 57¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 23? BUY No 94¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 23? BUY No 83¢ $11 7h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $11 7h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 23? BUY No 83¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 23? BUY No 96¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $12 7h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 23? BUY No 84¢ $5 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.99 · official $104.20 · 194 history records