Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:39:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
13 0x1346…0448 sports 409 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 67d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$11,754 (+29%) realized +$11,730 · open +$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate75%297W / 100L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day51.1pace
Fees−$794est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 67d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$4,306
other 12% +$195
crypto 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+32.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 +136.9% +114.3% 84% 59% +22.0%
≤30d 197 +76.4% +59.6% 79% 54% +8.1%
≤90d 397 +46.8% +32.8% 75% 51% +0.2%
all 397 +46.8% +32.8% 75% 51% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +32.8% 51% +0.2%
10% ← realistic here +20.1% 32% -9.4%
15% +8.5% 24% -18.1%
20% -2.1% 19% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +47% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +18% → late +76% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$36 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.25 per $1 lost it wins $2.25
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized+$11,730
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses297 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$794
Open positions12
Markets (closed)397 / 409
History coverage67d ⚠
Avg bet$101
Trades / day51.1
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 397 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5 Over 43¢ 54¢ $17 $21 +$4 (+26%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5 Under 39¢ 66¢ $10 $16 +$7 (+68%)
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 14¢ 24¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+71%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5) Chicago White Sox 37¢ 70¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+89%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5) New York Yankees 3¢ 22¢ $1 $4 +$4 (+650%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 Over 3¢ 27¢ $0 $2 +$1 (+905%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5 Over 46¢ 65¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+41%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Over 17¢ 49¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+186%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5) Chicago White Sox 37¢ 42¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+13%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5 Over 33¢ 61¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+85%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 Over 27¢ 67¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+148%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Over 8¢ 42¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+431%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $10 +$285 +2850%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $3 −$2 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) Jun 23 $122 +$3 +2%
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $96 +$5 +6%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $110 +$1 +1%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $69 −$55 -81%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $31 +$8 +26%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $105 −$7 -7%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $93 +$89 +96%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $99 +$15 +16%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland Jun 23 $47 +$5 +11%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $35 −$35 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $43 −$30 -71%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $1 +$3 +189%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $96 +$8 +8%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China Jun 22 $15 $0 -1%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $98 +$13 +13%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $25 −$10 -40%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 21 $74 +$14 +20%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $75 +$20 +27%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $40 +$10 +25%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 21 $65 +$10 +15%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $112 +$13 +11%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $291 +$579 +199%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $83 +$14 +16%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $111 +$7 +6%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland Jun 20 $247 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $155 +$10 +6%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $117 −$57 -48%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 20 $16 +$1 +5%
Test Series England vs. New Zealand: England vs New Zealand - Match go Jun 20 $11 +$4 +32%
Will England win? Jun 20 $0 $0 +62%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 20 $3 +$14 +550%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Netherlands Jun 20 $58 +$1 +1%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $48 +$18 +37%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $125 +$38 +30%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $50 +$9 +19%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $55 +$10 +18%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $66 +$9 +14%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $42 +$18 +44%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $64 +$38 +60%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $78 +$5 +6%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $27 +$2 +9%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $33 −$2 -5%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $5 +$12 +230%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $75 +$26 +35%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China Jun 19 $18 +$22 +121%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 +$6 +662%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria Jun 19 $15 +$126 +835%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Under 59¢ $295 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 2¢ $10 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 0¢ $0 1h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) SELL Uzbekistan 83¢ $124 1h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) SELL Uzbekistan 46¢ $22 1h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) SELL Uzbekistan 46¢ $75 1h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) SELL Uzbekistan 46¢ $1 1h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) SELL Uzbekistan 46¢ $4 1h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Uzbekistan 41¢ $2 1h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Uzbekistan 41¢ $21 1h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Uzbekistan 45¢ $55 1h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Uzbekistan 41¢ $11 1h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Uzbekistan 41¢ $6 1h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Uzbekistan 80¢ $40 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 86¢ $111 1h
Spread: Portugal (-5.5) BUY Uzbekistan 81¢ $81 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 84¢ $110 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Uzbekistan 9¢ $13 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 39¢ $13 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 39¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 39¢ $13 2h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 25¢ $13 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 20¢ $98 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 39¢ $10 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 49¢ $182 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 25¢ $93 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 4¢ $3 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 21¢ $96 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 21¢ $0 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 31¢ $15 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.52 · official $60.67 (match) · 3500 history records