Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:59:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x134a…5431 crypto 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$358 (-45%) realized −$213 · open −$145
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate29%7W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$450
sports 0% $0
culture 0% $0
other 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-41.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -37.9% -43.8% 37% 26% -55.0%
≤30d 24 -35.2% -41.4% 29% 21% -54.6%
≤90d 24 -35.2% -41.4% 29% 21% -54.6%
all 24 -35.2% -41.4% 29% 21% -54.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.4% 21% -54.6%
10% -47.0% 21% -58.9%
15% -52.1% 12% -62.9%
20% -56.8% 4% -66.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$23 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$213
Unrealized−$145
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses7 / 17
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage16d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Up 25¢ 0¢ $111 $0 −$111 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $23 −$7 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$33 +112%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $28 −$15 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $23 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $23 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $24 −$23 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$16 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$8 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $152 −$150 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $23 −$22 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $22 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $28 −$26 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $63 −$37 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $24 +$10 +44%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 -9%
Tyler: Adam Walton vs Tung-Lin Wu Jun 03 $2 $0 -5%
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? Jun 03 $3 $0 -8%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 3, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 03 $2 $0 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $17 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $23 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $36 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $63 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $31 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $152 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $24 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.52 · official $0.52 (match) · 46 history records