Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:27:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

13
0x134a…9e42
politics · 250 markets active 7h ago
0.0score
+$108,381 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$53,836 · open +$47,833
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP politics specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$147,356
Realized+$53,836
Unrealized+$47,833
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses190 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$2,553
Open positions24
Markets (closed)229 / 250
Avg bet$7,250
Trades / day55.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 24 History 229 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$24,106
7 days+$22,552
14 days−$156,973
30 days−$91,739
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 77¢ 82¢ $30,110 $32,228 +$2,119 (+7%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 27¢ 46¢ $17,018 $29,196 +$12,178 (+72%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 40¢ $8,120 $19,750 +$11,630 (+143%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 15¢ 17¢ $12,243 $13,305 +$1,062 (+9%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 3¢ 15¢ $2,307 $11,844 +$9,537 (+413%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 76¢ 78¢ $11,108 $11,400 +$292 (+3%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 18¢ 38¢ $5,277 $11,326 +$6,049 (+115%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? Yes 7¢ 34¢ $1,600 $7,836 +$6,236 (+390%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $2,174 $2,289 +$115 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 62¢ 55¢ $1,860 $1,635 −$225 (-12%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? No 72¢ 70¢ $1,596 $1,559 −$37 (-2%)
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? Yes 76¢ 81¢ $998 $1,074 +$76 (+8%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? No 24¢ 69¢ $356 $1,027 +$671 (+189%)
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 95¢ 93¢ $977 $963 −$14 (-1%)
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? No 95¢ 94¢ $490 $484 −$7 (-1%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 6¢ 46¢ $66 $481 +$416 (+630%)
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026? No 83¢ 68¢ $551 $446 −$105 (-19%)
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2026? Yes 50¢ 45¢ $155 $138 −$17 (-11%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 63¢ 28¢ $258 $115 −$144 (-56%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $2,100 $103 −$1,996 (-95%)
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 20¢ 14¢ $109 $79 −$30 (-28%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Yes 17¢ 26¢ $30 $46 +$16 (+54%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 80¢ 76¢ $13 $12 −$1 (-6%)
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 5¢ 7¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+40%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $14 $8 −$6 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC 327: Johnny Walker vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Jun 12 $6,591 −$6,591 -100%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 11 $1,358 +$253 +19%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $12,560 +$30,440 +242%
Will Trump say "Dog" in June? Jun 10 $288 +$4 +1%
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (6/1-6/7) Jun 09 $934 +$13 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 09 $1,186 +$3 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $5,892 −$5,892 -100%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $72,094 +$1,330 +2%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $2,147 +$3,262 +152%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $1,322 −$356 -27%
Will Trump praise Weijia Jiang by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $343 +$2 +1%
Will Trump praise Karoline Leavitt by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $40 +$1 +3%
Will Trump praise Ronny Jackson by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump praise Oz Pearlman by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $54 +$1 +1%
Will Trump praise Vladimir Putin by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $173 +$3 +2%
Will Trump praise Kid Rock by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $104 +$3 +3%
Will Trump praise William McKinley by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $153 +$4 +3%
Will Trump say "Surplus" during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $686 +$1 +0%
Will Trump say "Tariff" 5+ times during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $271 +$3 +1%
Will Trump say "Regulation" during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $120 +$2 +2%
Will Trump say "Scam" during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $114 +$3 +3%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $104 +$4 +4%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" 3+ times during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $466 +$34 +7%
Will Trump's remarks not air? Jun 05 $558 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $5,564 +$23 +0%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 3? Jun 04 $31 +$2 +6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Candace Owens by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $349 +$2 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $273,325 +$7,881 +3%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 1? Jun 03 $190 +$5 +2%
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/25-5/31) Jun 02 $1,785 +$248 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $28,463 −$934 -3%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 02 $33 +$8 +24%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? Jun 02 $557 +$5 +1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $85,034 +$1,732 +2%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $3,196 +$1,446 +45%
Will Trump say "Nuke" in May? Jun 02 $199 +$2 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $48,706 +$23,738 +49%
Will Trump say "Nuke" this week? Jun 01 $74 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 31 $3,136 −$3,136 -100%
Will Trump say "Bahrain" this week? May 31 $1,269 +$31 +2%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on May 30? May 31 $189 +$53 +28%
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? May 30 $2,137 +$183 +9%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $175,946 −$175,946 -100%
Will Trump say "Goat" in May? May 30 $93 −$90 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $10,907 −$10,905 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $26,406 −$21,060 -80%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 29 $2,791 −$2,791 -100%
Will Bessent say "Stock Market" during Press Briefing? May 28 $7 $0 +1%
Will Bessent say "Pink" during Press Briefing? May 28 $207 +$3 +1%
Will Bessent say "President" 20+ times during Press Briefing? May 28 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 38% +$185,063
world 36% +$58,999
crypto 15% +$7,993
sports 10% −$146,039
other 1% +$2,111
economics 0% +$123
culture 0% +$1
tech 0% +$8
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 8¢ $26 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 8¢ $328 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 8¢ $246 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 8¢ $394 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 8¢ $525 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 9¢ $464 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 7h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 7h
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? BUY No 94¢ $13 10h
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? BUY No 94¢ $237 11h
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? BUY No 97¢ $241 12h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 74¢ $136 13h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $585 14h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 17¢ $6,130 14h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 22¢ $2,342 14h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 18¢ $1,760 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $11,108 14h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $919 14h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $92 14h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 38¢ $92 14h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 38¢ $153 14h
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 20¢ $109 14h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 62¢ $61 14h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 64¢ $4 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +6.0% -4.1% 88% 12% +8.7%
≤30d 109 +5.3% -4.8% 86% 28% -16.4%
≤90d 229 +5.2% -4.8% 83% 17% -14.7%
all 229 +5.2% -4.8% 83% 17% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover55.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.8% 17% -14.7%
10% -13.9% 11% -22.9%
15% ← realistic here -22.2% 8% -30.3%
20% -29.8% 5% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147,356.38 · official $147,356.58 (match) · 3500 history records