trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.3% | -9.3% | 100% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +2.1% | -7.6% | 100% | 0% | -7.5% |
| ≤90d | 15 | -9.8% | -18.3% | 87% | 7% | -13.3% |
| all | 24 | -3.2% | -12.4% | 71% | 8% | -9.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.4% | 8% | -9.7% |
| 10% | -20.8% | 8% | -18.4% |
| 15% | -28.5% | 8% | -26.3% |
| 20% | -35.5% | 4% | -33.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $364 | $364 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $124 | $124 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Ripple Labs IPO before 2027? | No | 88¢ | 87¢ | $7 | $7 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 87¢ | 90¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 (+4%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me | Jun 10 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? | May 27 | $15 | +$1 | +9% |
| Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on May 2? | May 27 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 2? | May 27 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump say "Immigration" or "Immigrant" during King Charles visit? | May 27 | $17 | $0 | +0% |
| Gemini 3.5 released by May 31? | May 01 | $9 | −$9 | -99% |
| Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? | May 01 | $7 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m | May 01 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar | May 01 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of March? | May 01 | $20 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump say "Armada" this week? (March 22) | Mar 30 | $4 | +$1 | +39% |
| BNP Paribas Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Luciano Darderi | Mar 18 | $23 | −$23 | -100% |
| Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Mar 18 | $496 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will Joachim Trier win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? | Mar 18 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in February 2026? | Mar 18 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? | Mar 08 | $504 | +$1 | +0% |
| New Delhi: Federico Cina vs Rei Sakamoto | Feb 21 | $7 | +$4 | +67% |
| Celtics vs. Warriors | Feb 21 | $11 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Feb 19 | $1,929 | −$2 | -0% |
| Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Feb 18 | $1,936 | −$2 | -0% |
| Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Feb 17 | $1,905 | −$2 | -0% |
| Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Feb 16 | $1,903 | −$2 | -0% |
| Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Feb 16 | $1,940 | −$2 | -0% |
| US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026? | Feb 16 | $1,930 | +$2 | +0% |