Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:31:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
13 0x134e…d718 crypto 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 585d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$182 (+10%) realized +$160 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate65%20W / 11L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$317now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$104
7 days−$112
14 days−$97
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% +$354
sports 13% −$88
other 9% −$15
politics 7% −$76
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -60.3% -64.1% 25% 25% -37.1%
≤30d 18 -13.6% -21.8% 50% 50% -7.2%
≤90d 20 -7.9% -16.7% 50% 50% -8.9%
all 31 +3.3% -6.5% 65% 58% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 58% +0.1%
10% -15.4% 48% -9.5%
15% -23.6% 39% -18.2%
20% -31.1% 26% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$28 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

585d coverage
Net worth$317
Realized+$160
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses20 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)31 / 36
History coverage585d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 76¢ 88¢ $231 $270 +$39 (+17%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? Yes 75¢ 72¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Yes 56¢ 42¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-25%)
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first? $140 33¢ 13¢ $19 $7 −$12 (-62%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 24? Yes 23¢ 15¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Jun 23 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Solana dip to $70 in June? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of June? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? Jun 23 $113 +$57 +51%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of March? Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 23 $15 +$7 +44%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 23 $39 +$23 +59%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 21 $10 −$8 -78%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $24 +$15 +62%
Will Solana reach $90 in June? Jun 08 $21 +$9 +44%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 06 $29 +$54 +190%
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? Jun 02 $69 +$29 +41%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June? May 27 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June? May 27 $20 +$10 +49%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 30 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Apr 30 $104 −$14 -14%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 19 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February? Feb 16 $47 +$6 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 5? Feb 05 $22 +$2 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 3? Feb 03 $20 +$2 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 2? Feb 02 $13 +$3 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 1? Feb 02 $41 +$2 +6%
Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more? Feb 01 $15 +$26 +166%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 31 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k or $130k first? Nov 05 $228 +$132 +58%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $100 +$30 +30%
Will Ethereum reach $3,750 in November? Dec 05 $107 +$36 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? BUY Yes 75¢ $30 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 87¢ $169 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 9h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY Yes 56¢ $12 19h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 90¢ $22 20h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 97¢ $62 20h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 73¢ $2 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 59¢ $39 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 49¢ $29 16d
Will Solana reach $90 in June? SELL No 92¢ $30 16d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? BUY Yes 60¢ $24 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 60¢ $15 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 64¢ $34 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? BUY Yes 33¢ $29 21d
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first? BUY $140 33¢ $20 22d
Will Solana dip to $70 in June? BUY No 71¢ $10 22d
Will Solana reach $90 in June? BUY No 62¢ $21 22d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 50¢ $18 22d
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? SELL 70k 89¢ $98 22d
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? BUY 70k 71¢ $49 27d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $19 27d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $30 27d
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? BUY 70k 45¢ $20 48d
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? BUY $60k 29¢ $11 55d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? SELL No 96¢ $10 55d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 55d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? BUY Yes 12¢ $24 65d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June? BUY No 65¢ $20 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $316.89 · official $316.86 (match) · 82 history records