Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:03:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
13 0x1350…0841 other 109 markets active 2h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$212,985 (+23%) realized +$210,040 · open +$2,945
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%59W / 49L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$8,336per market
Trades / day23.4pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit2%portable
Net worth$19,435now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49,685
7 days+$97,381
14 days+$97,381
30 days+$163,975
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$203,662
crypto 1% +$10,709
sports 1% +$2,090
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +91.7% +73.4% 75% 75% +72.8%
≤30d 24 +40.9% +27.5% 67% 67% +48.5%
≤90d 108 +15.3% +4.3% 55% 54% +12.3%
all 108 +15.3% +4.3% 55% 54% +12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.3% 54% +12.3%
10% -5.7% 52% +1.5%
15% ← realistic here -14.8% 47% -8.3%
20% -23.1% 42% -17.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$11,209) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +27% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
18.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8,888 vs −$6,345 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$19,435
Realized+$210,040
Unrealized+$2,945
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses59 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions1
Markets (closed)108 / 109
History coverage87d
Avg bet$8,336
Trades / day23.4
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit2%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 42¢ 50¢ $16,491 $19,435 +$2,945 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $14,192 +$25,230 +178%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $8,717 −$8,717 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $19,180 +$33,172 +173%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $12,358 +$10,709 +87%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $29,229 +$10,137 +35%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $7,595 +$26,737 +352%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $7,550 +$8,263 +109%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $8,149 −$8,149 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $22,188 +$14,178 +64%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $17,437 +$8,588 +49%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $5,702 −$5,702 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $3,415 +$6,934 +203%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $14,213 +$16,027 +113%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $8,362 −$8,362 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 24 $5,673 +$2,090 +37%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $6,650 −$6,650 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $4,686 −$4,686 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $4,949 −$4,877 -98%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $14,847 +$12,550 +84%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $7,583 +$5,269 +70%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $10,421 +$5,133 +49%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $5,680 −$2,445 -43%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $2,639 +$619 +24%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $17,855 +$27,927 +156%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $3,553 +$9,325 +262%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $6,373 −$6,373 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $5,053 +$5,699 +113%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $1,394 +$2,006 +144%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $3,888 −$3,848 -99%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 16 $31,988 +$20,452 +64%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-14? May 15 $2,272 +$179 +8%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? May 13 $4,137 −$4,137 -100%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $11,209 −$11,209 -100%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $6,068 −$6,068 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $3,474 −$3,474 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-11? May 12 $8,514 +$5,584 +66%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11? May 12 $20,212 +$35,279 +174%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $6,490 +$5,990 +92%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $2,339 −$2,325 -99%
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $7,350 −$7,350 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $14,097 −$14,097 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $7,510 +$13,206 +176%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $11,764 −$11,748 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $7,350 +$7,650 +104%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $45 −$1 -3%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $2,541 −$2,524 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $19,974 +$5,466 +27%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $16,551 +$3,289 +20%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $7,105 −$7,105 -100%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $11,655 +$8,191 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $779 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $9 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $6,528 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $14 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $7 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $4 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $4 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $1 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $36 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $1 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $1 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $7 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $7 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $4 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $7 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $2 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $9 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $1 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $7 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $1 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $7 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $1 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $11 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $7 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $4 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $2 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $156 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $14 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $4 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $786 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19,435.28 · official $19,435.28 (match) · 2146 history records