Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:00:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
13 0x1351…178b sports 131 markets active 2h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$684 (+13%) realized +$688 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%56W / 73L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$78est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$184
7 days+$101
14 days+$107
30 days+$598
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$690
other 1% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -33.2% -39.5% 37% 32% -3.4%
≤30d 120 -1.0% -10.5% 42% 39% +1.5%
≤90d 129 +1.5% -8.2% 43% 41% +2.7%
all 129 +1.5% -8.2% 43% 41% +2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 41% +2.7%
10% -17.0% 38% -7.1%
15% -25.0% 38% -16.1%
20% -32.4% 34% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$21 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$688
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses56 / 73
Est. fees paid−$78
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 131
History coverage35d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $6 −$4 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery Jun 23 $51 +$41 +81%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Aleksandar Vukic Jun 23 $406 +$39 +10%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Federico Coria vs Oliver Bonding Jun 22 $101 +$44 +44%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mark Lajal vs Luka Pavlovic Jun 22 $382 +$60 +16%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $100 +$288 +287%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert Jun 20 $30 +$17 +57%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Luca Van Assche Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $12 −$12 -99%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $16 +$12 +76%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $46 −$45 -98%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $163 −$160 -98%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $10 +$10 +101%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $53 +$65 +123%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $10 +$14 +134%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $40 −$39 -98%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $152 +$131 +86%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $10 +$27 +262%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar Jun 14 $20 −$1 -3%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $20 +$24 +116%
Ilkley: Oliver Tarvet vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $20 +$22 +109%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $10 +$22 +216%
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 12 $31 +$43 +139%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 12 $20 +$42 +206%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Set Handicap: Lehecka (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) Jun 12 $20 −$10 -48%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $86 +$82 +95%
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Federico Cina Jun 12 $30 +$41 +140%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $61 −$29 -47%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $20 −$2 -8%
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 12 $14 −$14 -98%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery SELL Arthur Fery 100¢ $92 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 55¢ $51 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Aleksandar Vukic SELL Jenson Brooksby 99¢ $445 6h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Aleksandar Vukic BUY Jenson Brooksby 90¢ $406 6h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Federico Coria vs Oliver Bonding SELL Federico Coria 96¢ $145 26h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Federico Coria vs Oliver Bonding BUY Federico Coria 66¢ $101 26h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mark Lajal vs Luka Pavlovic SELL Luka Pavlovic 100¢ $441 30h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mark Lajal vs Luka Pavlovic BUY Luka Pavlovic 86¢ $382 30h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Francisco Cerundolo 20¢ $33 2d
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Francisco Cerundolo 19¢ $17 2d
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Francisco Cerundolo 35¢ $51 2d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert BUY Tommy Paul 63¢ $30 3d
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Daniel Altmaier 30¢ $7 3d
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Luca Van Assche BUY Sebastian Ofner 49¢ $20 3d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 28¢ $6 4d
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 53¢ $12 4d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 56¢ $16 4d
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Corentin Moutet 40¢ $46 5d
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Terence Atmane 25¢ $51 6d
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 41¢ $122 6d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 22¢ $20 6d
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 44¢ $20 6d
Nottingham 2: Jacob Fearnley vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Jacob Fearnley 50¢ $20 6d
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 42¢ $10 6d
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 43¢ $31 6d
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 52¢ $41 6d
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Fabian Marozsan 100¢ $20 7d
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 52¢ $41 7d
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik BUY Alexander Bublik 48¢ $40 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND BUY 13¢ $4 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.93 · official $5.93 (match) · 242 history records