Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:04:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1352…aeb2 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$35 (-10%) realized −$33 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$31
crypto 3% −$10
sports 1% +$4
weather 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -15.6% -23.6% 43% 43% -24.7%
≤30d 7 -15.6% -23.6% 43% 43% -24.7%
≤90d 7 -15.6% -23.6% 43% 43% -24.7%
all 7 -15.6% -23.6% 43% 43% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.6% 43% -24.7%
10% ← realistic here -30.9% 43% -31.9%
15% -37.6% 43% -38.5%
20% -43.7% 43% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$26 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized−$33
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)7 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 51¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 25? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1 +$1 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -74%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $94 +$62 +66%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 −$91 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $2 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 25? SELL Yes $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 25? SELL Yes $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 25? SELL Yes $0 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 7h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 7h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $9 8h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $156 8h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 53¢ $5 8h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $10 8h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 82¢ $13 8h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 25? BUY No 53¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 25? SELL Yes $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 25? BUY Yes $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 25? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 25? BUY Yes $1 10h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $81 10h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.56 · official $133.57 (match) · 22 history records