Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:07:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1354…19f7 crypto 852 markets active 23h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$333 (-5%) realized −$333 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate34%287W / 565L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day39.7pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$121
14 days−$243
30 days−$659
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$682
sports 11% −$22
other 2% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -25.1% -32.2% 30% 30% -35.5%
≤30d 270 -19.6% -27.2% 31% 30% -34.8%
≤90d 852 -15.4% -23.4% 34% 32% -18.9%
all 852 -15.4% -23.4% 34% 32% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.4% 32% -18.9%
10% ← realistic here -30.8% 31% -26.6%
15% -37.4% 31% -33.7%
20% -43.6% 29% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$7 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$333
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses287 / 565
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)852 / 852
History coverage53d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day39.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 852 Trades
no open positions (403 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 +$2 +120%
Curaçao leading at halftime? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $36 −$36 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $34 +$66 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$6 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$11 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -46%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $13 +$13 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$11 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $13 +$18 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$16 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$15 +330%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$6 +193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +38%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $76 −$76 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 30h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $32 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $0 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $16 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 BUY Over 7¢ $3 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $3 3d
Curaçao leading at halftime? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $36 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $24 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $26 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $1 4d
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $3 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $101 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 33¢ $34 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2418 history records