Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:35:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1357…8e87 sports 195 markets active 2h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%23W / 171L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 33% −$8
politics 27% −$4
other 20% −$3
economics 6% $0
culture 5% −$1
crypto 4% $0
world 3% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 24 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.7%
all 194 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses23 / 171
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)194 / 195
History coverage172d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 194 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $28 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $151 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $68 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $159 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 04 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Apr 04 $87 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 04 $30 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 03 $39 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $70 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 03 $101 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 02 $426 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Apr 02 $91 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 02 $76 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 01 $37 $0 -0%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 31 $36 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 31 $33 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 30 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 29 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $144 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 29 $135 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Mar 28 $84 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 28 $210 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 28 $71 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 27 $38 $0 +0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 27 $41 $0 +0%
Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 27 $32 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Mar 26 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 26 $49 $0 +0%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 26 $76 $0 +0%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 25 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Mar 25 $40 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 25 $41 $0 -0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 25 $31 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Mar 24 $35 $0 -0%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 24 $39 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 24 $98 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 24 $38 $0 -0%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 24 $36 $0 -1%
Will Victoria Mboko be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Mar 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 23 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 22 $115 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 21 $83 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 20 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $32 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 19 $97 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 19 $89 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 19 $32 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $35 1h
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $28 11d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $28 11d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $30 25d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $30 26d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $9 39d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 92¢ $9 78d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $19 82d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 92¢ $18 82d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 92¢ $40 82d
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $40 82d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $34 82d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $34 82d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $32 82d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $32 82d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $40 82d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $40 83d
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $30 83d
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 83d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? SELL No 98¢ $39 83d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? BUY No 98¢ $39 83d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $32 83d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $32 84d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL Yes 98¢ $29 84d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 98¢ $30 84d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $35 84d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 97¢ $35 84d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL Yes 98¢ $33 84d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 98¢ $33 84d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $30 84d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.73 · official $34.73 (match) · 755 history records