Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:20:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1357…d2ee sports 210 markets active 19h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$183 (+8%) realized +$133 · open +$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%79W / 127L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days+$65
14 days+$48
30 days+$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% −$12
finance 14% +$280
world 14% −$35
other 14% +$8
crypto 11% +$5
politics 6% −$58
tech 2% −$22
weather 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +6.7% -3.4% 55% 52% +1.1%
≤30d 102 +2.1% -7.6% 42% 40% -3.8%
≤90d 206 -0.6% -10.1% 38% 37% -4.3%
all 206 -0.6% -10.1% 38% 37% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 37% -4.3%
10% -18.7% 36% -13.4%
15% -26.5% 33% -21.8%
20% -33.7% 30% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$5 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized+$133
Unrealized+$50
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses79 / 127
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)206 / 210
History coverage78d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 206 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 74¢ 99¢ $74 $99 +$25 (+34%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? No 50¢ 99¢ $25 $49 +$24 (+98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 92 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$12 +77%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Jun 15 $30 −$15 -49%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $11 −$7 -68%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $6 +$8 +124%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $101 +$31 +31%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $167 +$4 +2%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -94%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $8 +$4 +48%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $8 +$12 +160%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $15 +$4 +27%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 +$7 +134%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -89%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $10 −$9 -88%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$10 +197%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$7 +69%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 12 $20 +$6 +31%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $5 −$4 -81%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $7 −$6 -79%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$6 +114%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06- Jun 12 $5 +$14 +270%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $15 +$8 +55%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 11 $10 +$5 +52%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $13 +$7 +57%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $4 −$3 -95%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $11 +$9 +85%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $5 −$4 -84%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $1 +$7 +641%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5 +$7 +129%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $4 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $30 +$6 +21%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $2 +$3 +129%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $2 −$2 -84%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $3 +$2 +73%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $5 −$4 -87%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 04 $1 +$4 +317%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 04 $5 +$8 +159%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 56¢ $20 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 56¢ $15 18h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 39h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND SELL 30¢ $15 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 18¢ $4 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $11 40h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $10 40h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 42¢ $4 42h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 76¢ $101 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 58¢ $6 2d
Germany leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $171 2d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 97¢ $167 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 21¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 48¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 34¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 58¢ $10 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 58¢ $30 3d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 67¢ $8 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 39¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 38¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 78¢ $15 3d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL B8 3¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 8¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 27¢ $5 4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.25 · official $168.25 · 392 history records