Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:09:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

13
0x1357…90fc
weather · 89 markets active 2h ago
4.0score
+$75 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$74 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$507
Realized+$74
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses71 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)84 / 89
History coverage81d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 5 History 84 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $164 $164 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $150 $150 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C or below on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $43 $44 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $43 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 39°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 11? Jun 12 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $85 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 11? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $92 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on June 10? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 10? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 9? Jun 10 $95 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or higher on June 9? Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 8? Jun 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 6? Jun 08 $54 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 6? Jun 08 $66 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? Jun 08 $175 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or higher on June 5? Jun 06 $73 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on June 5? Jun 06 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 4? Jun 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on June 1? Jun 03 $49 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $70 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 41°C on June 2? Jun 03 $104 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 2? Jun 03 $150 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $51 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 31? Jun 01 $53 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 42°C or higher on May 31? Jun 01 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 42°C on May 30? May 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 44°C or higher on May 30? May 31 $43 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 May 30 $61 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on May 29? May 30 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $112 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on May 30? May 29 $40 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C or higher on May 28? May 29 $49 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C or higher on May 28? May 29 $51 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? May 29 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $71 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 26? May 27 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or higher on May 26? May 27 $139 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C or below on May 25? May 25 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 25? May 25 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C or higher on May 24? May 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C or higher on May 24? May 25 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 50% +$6
weather 21% +$4
other 11% +$1
world 9% +$65
economics 4% −$1
culture 4% −$1
tech 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $150 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C or below on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 93¢ $7 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $100 14h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $164 14h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $30 14h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $100 46h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 39°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $100 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $50,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 46h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $92 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C or higher on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $48 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C or higher on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $77 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $100 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 4d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or higher on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $100 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $100 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $95 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $100 7d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $66 7d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $80 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $54 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 64 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 84 +0.3% -9.3% 85% 1% -9.1%
all 84 +0.3% -9.3% 85% 1% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 1% -9.1%
10% -17.9% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $507.10 · official $507.10 (match) · 183 history records