Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:13:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
13 0x1358…a299 politics 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$98 (-0%) realized −$98 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate9%11W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$11
politics 37% −$9
sports 9% −$79
crypto 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
economics 2% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 112 -4.3% -13.4% 6% 3% -10.0%
all 123 -2.7% -12.0% 9% 5% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 5% -10.0%
10% -20.4% 4% -18.6%
15% -28.1% 3% -26.4%
20% -35.1% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×4.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$98
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 112
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)123 / 123
History coverage115d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 123 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $26 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $156 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $27 $0 -0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $165 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $140 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $189 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $147 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $281 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $135 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $121 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $161 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $316 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $157 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $319 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 20 $151 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $241 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $148 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 16 $149 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 16 $117 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $158 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $159 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $144 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 12 $158 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $136 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 11 $119 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $148 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $423 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $120 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $116 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $27 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $290 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $269 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $144 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 05 $118 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 05 $119 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $127 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $104 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $493 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $110 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $120 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 02 $388 $0 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 01 $164 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $302 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 30 $155 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $492 −$1 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $148 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $164 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $120 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $149 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 1h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 13h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $16 16h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $16 31h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $27 4d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $27 5d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $24 5d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 5d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $17 5d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $17 6d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $23 9d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $23 11d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 11d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 13d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $147 22d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $147 23d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $155 24d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $155 25d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $135 25d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $135 25d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $121 25d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $121 25d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $161 25d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $161 26d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $153 27d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $153 27d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $157 27d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $157 28d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $153 28d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $153 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 362 history records