Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:37:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
13 0x1359…0c0d sports 593 markets active 2h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$299 (-2%) realized −$508 · open +$209
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate50%289W / 291L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$458now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$1
14 days+$30
30 days−$1,168
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$19
other 29% −$977
crypto 10% +$10
politics 4% +$581
world 2% $0
tech 2% +$12
weather 1% −$58
finance 0% −$16
culture 0% +$8
economics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +14.8% +3.9% 40% 40% -9.7%
≤30d 88 -44.8% -50.1% 20% 18% -50.7%
≤90d 168 -18.5% -26.3% 25% 22% -20.3%
all 580 -12.0% -20.4% 50% 34% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.4% 34% -13.3%
10% -28.0% 28% -21.6%
15% -35.0% 21% -29.1%
20% -41.3% 16% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$458
Realized−$508
Unrealized+$209
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses289 / 291
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions13
Markets (closed)580 / 593
History coverage164d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 580 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026? Yes 26¢ 46¢ $229 $409 +$179 (+78%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Yes 8¢ 70¢ $5 $41 +$36 (+759%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? Yes 42¢ 26¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-38%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets in June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets in June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets in June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets in June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets in June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets in June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets in June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets in June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets in June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 81 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in June 2026? Jun 28 $206 −$4 -2%
Will Elon Musk post <400 tweets in June 2026? Jun 28 $2 $0 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in June 2026? Jun 23 $22 −$6 -27%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 22 $1 $0 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 19 $1 $0 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in June 2026? Jun 18 $13 −$2 -14%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 51 million views on day 4 Jun 17 $19 −$19 -98%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51 and 52 million views on day 4 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get 52 million or more views on day 4? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3 Jun 16 $62 +$98 +159%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3 Jun 16 $69 −$68 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 47 and 48 million views on day 3 Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 45 million views on day 3? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 3 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 3 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $52 +$76 +147%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +27%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +223%
Will MrBeast's next video get 45 million or more views on day 2? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 43 and 45 million views on day 2 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
SpaceX IPO: Open Up/Down on Second Day Jun 14 $12 −$2 -17%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? Jun 12 $15 −$2 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $6 +$3 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -67%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -37%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $48 +$9 +19%
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer Jun 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will Warren Hoburg be chosen for the Artemis III mission? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Matthew Dominick be chosen for the Artemis III mission? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -88%
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? Jun 09 $9 −$2 -20%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 09 $4 $0 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$1 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $5 +$3 +63%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Trump say "President Biden" this week? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views in week 1? Jun 05 $339 −$328 -97%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62 and 62.5 million views in wee Jun 05 $2 −$2 -95%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 61.5 and 62 million views in wee Jun 05 $2 −$1 -80%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $4 −$1 -22%
MLB: Scorigami in 2026? Jun 05 $4 −$1 -31%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 05 $2 −$1 -41%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $3 $0 -12%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 62.5 and 63 million views in wee Jun 05 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 05 $6 −$2 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in June 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $202 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 5h
Will Elon Musk post <400 tweets in June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will Elon Musk post <400 tweets in June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 20h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 29h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 35h
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $12 2d
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $13 2d
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $9 3d
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 4d
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 4d
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 4d
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $36 4d
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $39 4d
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $36 5d
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 5d
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in June 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $9 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $457.79 · official $457.79 (match) · 1634 history records